Monthly economic update: November 2024
Executive summary
Global Economy
- In October 2024, the global economy showed signs of slowing, but outperformed expectations. Price pressures eased, falling below central bank targets in EM Asia, while inflation remained persistent in developed markets. The composite PMI showed modest growth, bolstered by progress in Asia. The service sector remained robust, while manufacturing experienced a slight improvement but continued to contract. However, following the U.S. election result, the global economic outlook has become more uncertain.
- U.S. economic data reflects strength, as shown by the resilience of third-quarter GDP. However, October economic data slowed, partly due to hurricanes and labor strikes. Regarding price pressures, the progress of inflation seems to have stalled.
- China's October economics data indicated positive momentum, particularly in goods consumption. However, the recovery in the property sector remains uncertain. The market anticipates further stimulus to strengthen the economy.
Domestic Economy
- In September 2024, Thai economic activities slowed down from preceding period. Private consumption declined, particularly in durable goods, as well spending on service, consistent with number of domestic visitors and foreign tourists. Manufacturing production also declined, aligning with export growth while private investment was stable.
- Headline inflation continued to accelerate in October 2024. The major increase in price pressures was primarily due to energy price as well as raw food price. Besides that, core inflation remained stable. Overall, Thailand’s inflation still below the central banks’ target range and below the peers and major economies.
- Thailand GDP growth in quarter 3 of 2024 rose more than expected, thanks to general government final consumption expenditure and investment, as well as exports of goods and services. On the contrary, private final consumption expenditure slowed down.
Financial Market
- U.S. Treasury yields continued to rise due to strong economic growth and Trump's election win, while Thai government bond yields showed little response to movements in U.S. Treasury yields.
- The dollar has rallied, mostly fueled by the Trump trade, while The Thai baht experienced the largest depreciation, leading the decline of other regional currencies. Looking ahead, the future movement of the Thai baht remains highly uncertain. Typically, the baht appreciates towards the end of the year, but following the election, the dollar often strengthens.
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