- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.78-33.80 this morning supportive level at 33.70 resistance level at 33.90
- SET Index: 1,447.2 (-0.27%), 30 Oct 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,813.7 (-0.33%), 30 Oct 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.436 (-0.22 bps), 30 Oct 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.29 (+1.00 bps), 30 Oct 2024
- US economy rises 2.8%, driven by robust consumer activity
- US private payrolls growth surges in October
- Eurozone growth surpasses expectations, but the outlook is uncertain
- UK's Reeves raises taxes the most since 1993 in her first Labour budget
- US dollar weakens ahead of the election and NFP report
US economy rises 2.8%, driven by robust consumer activity
The US economy grew strongly in the third quarter, driven by increased household spending ahead of the election and a boost in federal defense spending. Real GDP rose at an annualized rate of 2.8%, following a 3% increase in the previous quarter, falling slightly short of the expected 3.0% growth. Consumer spending climbed by 3.7%, the highest increase since early 2023, with broad gains across various goods, including automobiles, household furnishings, and recreational items. Additionally, core PCE increased by 2.2% in the third quarter, aligning closely with the Federal Reserve’s target.
US private payrolls growth surges in October
U.S. private payrolls grew by 233,000 in October, despite concerns over hurricanes and strikes, following a revised increase of 159,000 in September. Economists had expected a gain of 114,000. However, the ADP and BLS employment reports show limited correlation, with ADP figures often underestimating payroll growth this year.
Eurozone growth surpasses expectations, but the outlook is uncertain
The eurozone economy grew faster than expected last quarter, with GDP rising 0.4% in Q3, surpassing the 0.2% forecast. However, concerns about potential high tariffs from a possible Trump presidency, escalating trade tensions with China, and low consumer confidence weigh on the outlook. Year-over-year growth improved to 0.9% from 0.6%, but remains below the estimated potential rate. Germany, the bloc's largest economy, surprised with a 0.2% expansion driven by increased public and private consumption, despite recession predictions for its industrial sector.
UK's Reeves raises taxes the most since 1993 in her first Labour budget
Britain's new finance minister, Rachel Reeves, announced the largest tax increases in 30 years in her first budget, aimed at repairing struggling public services. The tax hikes primarily affect businesses and the wealthy, while also allowing for increased borrowing to stimulate an economy impacted by the 2007-09 financial crisis, Brexit, COVID, and rising energy costs. The budget will raise taxes by £40 billion ($52 billion) annually, in line with expectations. The Office for Budget Responsibility (OBR) viewed the budget as supportive of short-term growth, though its long-term outlook remained largely unchanged.
US dollar weakens ahead of the election and NFP report
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.436, -0.22 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.415, -1.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.29, +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.74, moving in a range of 33.78 – 33.80 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.70 – 33.90 today. The dollar slightly weakened but remained above the 104.00 mark as market participants processed mixed economic data. The euro gained strength against the dollar following a series of strong reports. The British pound faced pressure after the UK Budget, with Gilts dropping due to expectations of increased issuances and higher inflation. The Japanese yen remained steady after fluctuating around the 153.00 level, showing uncertainty ahead of the BoJ's decision.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
