- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.135-33.19 this morning supportive level at 33.00 resistance level at 33.25
- SET Index: 1,495.0 (+0.67%), 17 Oct 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,841.5 (-0.02%), 17 Oct 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.425 (-0.89 bps), 17 Oct 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.09 (+7.00 bps), 17 Oct 2024
- US retail sales demonstrate the resilience of the economy's growth driver
- ECB lowers rates as anticipated, stating it is on track to control inflation
- China's $562 billion loan plan for unfinished homes disappoints
- The US Dollar extends its winning streak following robust retail sales
US retail sales demonstrate the resilience of the economy's growth driver
US retail sales in September showed stronger-than-expected growth, highlighting resilient consumer spending that continues to support the economy. Retail sales rose by 0.4%, surpassing the 0.3% forecast and up from 0.1% the previous month. Excluding autos, core sales increased by 0.5%, above the anticipated 0.1% and the prior 0.2%. The supercore, which excludes gas and autos, rose by 0.7%, up from 0.3%. Additionally, the control metric—an indicator of consumer spending for GDP—also rose by 0.7%, exceeding both the previous and forecasted 0.3%. Gains were driven by miscellaneous store retailers, clothing stores, and food services. However, electronics, gasoline stations, and furniture saw declines. The robust retail control figures suggest positive implications for Q3 GDP.
ECB lowers rates as anticipated, stating it is on track to control inflation
On Thursday, the European Central Bank (ECB) cut interest rates for the third time this year, reducing the deposit rate by 25 basis points to 3.25%. This decision reflects slow economic growth and declining consumer price pressures, with inflation now below 2% and potentially reaching the 2% target sooner than expected. The ECB noted that the disinflation process is progressing, influenced by recent disappointing economic activity indicators. Lagarde indicated that more data will be available before the December 12th meeting, and while she hasn't ruled out another rate cut then, current policy remains restrictive. The market expects another 25 basis point cut in December, with an additional 115 basis points of easing anticipated in 2025.
China's $562 billion loan plan for unfinished homes disappoints
China's decision to nearly double the loan quota for unfinished residential projects to 4 trillion yuan ($562 billion) fell short of market expectations, resulting in a drop in property shares as investors sought stronger policies. The government set a new year-end loan target for designated "white-list" property projects after allocating 2.23 trillion yuan by October 16. This initiative, aimed at ensuring homes are completed, is part of a wider set of measures announced during a briefing on Thursday.
The US Dollar extends its winning streak following robust retail sales
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.425, -0.89 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.41, +1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.09, +7.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.23 moving in a range of 33.135 – 33.19 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.00 – 33.25 today. The Dollar strengthened on Thursday, gaining momentum after US retail sales exceeded expectations. Additionally, initial jobless claims unexpectedly dropped to 241,000, contrary to forecasts of no change at 260,000. The Dollar Index climbed from a low of 103.44 to a peak of 103.87, surpassing its 200-day moving average of 103.77, with the next target at 104.00 before reaching the August 2 high of 104.43. The euro faced pressure against the Dollar following the US data, while the ECB's anticipated rate cut had little impact. Meanwhile, the Japanese yen weakened, with USD/JPY returning to the 150.00 range as US yields rose after the data release.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
