- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.235-33.305 this morning supportive level at 33.10 resistance level at 33.40
- SET Index: 1,470.10 (+0.11%), 11 Oct 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,859.85 (+0.77%), 14 Oct 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.527 (-1.67 bps), 11 Oct 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.08 (-1.00 bps), 11 Oct 2024
- U.S. producer prices unchanged; core inflation expected to rise in September
- China flags more fiscal stimulus for economy, leaves out key details on size
- China's deflationary pressures rise in September as consumer inflation slows
- China's September export growth fell to a five-month low amid declining global demand
- US dollar climbs to 10-week high
U.S. producer prices unchanged; core inflation expected to rise in September
U.S. producer prices were stable in September, with rising service costs offset by lower goods prices. On annual basis, the index rose 1.8% year-over-year, the smallest increase since February but above the 1.6% consensus. Core prices increased 0.2% month-over-month, matching expectations but down from 0.3% previously. Year-over-year, core prices rose 2.8%, exceeding the 2.7% forecast. However, super core metrics declined from the previous month.
China flags more fiscal stimulus for economy, leaves out key details on size
On Saturday, China pledged to "significantly increase" debt to boost its struggling economy, but investors remain uncertain about the total size of the stimulus package, crucial for assessing the sustainability of its stock market rally. Finance Minister Lan Foan announced that Beijing would aid local governments with debt, provide subsidies to low-income individuals, support the property market, and strengthen state banks' capital. These measures respond to investor demands as the world's second-largest economy grapples with declining momentum, deflationary pressures, and low consumer confidence amid a property market downturn.
China's deflationary pressures rise in September as consumer inflation slows
China's consumer inflation unexpectedly slowed in September, while producer price deflation intensified, increasing pressure on Beijing to implement more stimulus measures to boost weak demand and economic activity. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% year-over-year in September, the slowest pace in three months, down from a 0.6% increase in August and below the anticipated 0.6% rise. Meanwhile, the producer price index (PPI) fell 2.8% year-on-year in September, marking its steepest decline in six months, compared to a 1.8% drop the previous month and below the expected 2.5% decrease.
China's September export growth fell to a five-month low amid declining global demand
China's exports rose just 2.4% year-over-year in September, falling short of expectations and hindering a trade rebound that had benefited the slowing economy. Imports saw a modest 0.3% increase, resulting in a trade surplus of $81.71 billion. Economists had anticipated a 6% rise in exports and a 0.8% gain in imports. Although exports have been a strong growth area this year, with total shipments through September reaching the second highest on record, imports have lagged due to domestic slowdowns.
US dollar climbs to 10-week high
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.527, -1.67 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.52, -2.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.08, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.31 moving in a range of 33.235 – 33.305 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.10 – 33.40 today. The dollar strengthened on Columbus Day as hopes for a Trump victory rose, with polls showing him closing the gap with Harris. However, gains were limited by Fed officials' comments. The euro weakened, hitting a two-month low against the dollar ahead of the ECB's rate decision. The Japanese yen continued to decline, with USD/JPY nearing 150.00 before retreating slightly.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
