- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.50-33.54 this morning supportive level at 33.30 resistance level at 33.60
- SET Index: 1,457.0 (+0.29%), 9 Oct 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,792.0 (+0.71%), 9 Oct 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.55 (-1.71 bps), 9 Oct 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 4.06 (+2.00 bps), 9 Oct 2024
- Fed officials were divided oversize rate cut by half a point in September
- German exports rise in August, defying expectations of decline
- India central bank holds rate steady for 10th time in a row
- Oil prices slip lower; declining Middle East risk premia
- Dollar edges higher ahead of Fed minutes; euro weakens
Fed officials were divided oversize rate cut by half a point in September
The summary of Fed’s September 17-18 meeting detailed reasons that policymakers decided to approve a jumbo rate cut of 50 bps. for the first time in more than four years, and showed members divided over the economic outlook. But some participants observed that they would have preferred a 25 bps. reduction of the target range at this meeting. Consequently, the minutes indicated that others also favored a smaller move which it was the first time a governor had dissented on an interest rate vote since 2005 for a Fed known for its unity on monetary policy. The data has helped cement expectations that while the Fed likely is in the early days of an easing cycle, future cuts likely would not be as aggressive as the September move.
German exports rise in August, defying expectations of decline
The federal statistics office reported that German exports rose by 1.3%mom in August defying market expectations of a decline 1.0%mom, due to strong demand particularly from the United States and the United Kingdom. On the other hand, exports to EU countries rose by 0.8% on the month and exports to third countries increased by 1.9%. On a yearly basis, exports registered an annual fall of 3.1 percent, in contrast to the 5.6 percent gain seen in July. Likewise, imports slide 5.3% contraction after an increase of 4.8 % in the prior month. Consequently, Germany’s trade surplus jump to 22.5 billion euros ($24.69 billion) in August from 16.9 billion euros in July, which was boosted mainly by a sharp fall in imports, which fell by 3.4% on the month.
India central bank holds rate steady for 10th time in a row
The Reserve Bank of India’s Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) on Wednesday decided to keep the policy repo rate unchanged at 6.50% for the 10th consecutive time. Of the six members of the MPC, five voted in favour of the decision, which is aimed at taming inflation. RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das said that the central bank will keep a close watch on inflation, and that inflation was set to remain sticky in the coming months. But he struck a less hawkish tone than seen in prior meetings, especially as the RBI’s shift to a neutral stance signaled that the bank was now moving away from a sustained withdrawal of accommodative policy.
Oil prices slip lower; declining Middle East risk premia
Oil prices fell slightly Wednesday as demand concerns countered the risk of supply disruption from conflict in the Middle East and Hurricane Milton in the US. Brent crude futures were down 36 cents, or 0.47%, at $76.82 a barrel by 1103 GMT while U.S. West Texas Intermediate (WTI) futures lost 43 cents, or 0.58%, to $73.14. Brent and WTI both gained more than 1% earlier in the session after prices had plunged on Tuesday by more than 4% on a possible Hezbollah-Israel ceasefire, though markets remain wary of a potential Israeli attack on Iranian oil infrastructure.
Dollar edges higher ahead of Fed minutes; euro weakens
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.55, -1.71 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.57, -2.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.06, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.49 Moving in a range of 33.50-33.54 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.30-33.60 today. Dollar edged higher Wednesday ahead of an opportunity to assess the interest rate outlook for the US retrieving from Fed minutes, which traded 0.1% higher to 102.387, not far from Friday's seven-week high of 102.69. Meanwhile, the Euro retreated as Several European Central Bank policymakers argued their case on Wednesday for another interest rate cut next week, even if some of their colleagues remained unconvinced as turmoil in the Middle East fuels volatility in energy costs.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
