- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.31-33.41 this morning supportive level at 33.25 resistance level at 33.55
- SET Index: 1,444.3 (+0.11%), 4 Oct 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,751.1 (+0.89%), 4 Oct 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.53 (+1.46 bps), 4 Oct 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.98 (+13.00 bps), 4 Oct 2024
- Global supply chain pressures easing, said by the New York Federal Reserve
- UK Construction PMI signaling a solid upturn in September
- Oil prices rose on the mounting threat of a region-wide war in the Middle East
- Vietnam quarterly growth hits two-year high due to exports and investment
- Dollar seen a strong rally amid rising Middle East tensions
Global supply chain pressures easing, said by the New York Federal Reserve
The New York Fed bank's global supply chain pressure index, which measures how readings deviate from historical averages, eased to a reading of 0.13 in September. That ended an upward trend which saw the index move from -0.96 in April to 0.2 in August. Global supply chain pressures have hovered right around normal or less than normal since early 2023, and their relative softness has played a key role in an ebbing of inflation that allowed the Fed to kick off its interest rate-cutting cycle last month. Supply chain disruptions during the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic and its early stage played a key role in driving U.S. inflation to 40-year highs in 2022.
UK Construction PMI signaling a solid upturn in September
The headline S&P Global UK Construction Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) posted 57.2 in September, up from 53.6 in August and above the neutral 50.0 threshold for the seventh successive month. The latest reading signaled a strong increase in total construction activity and the steepest rate of growth for 29 months. Faster rates of output growth were seen in all three sub-sectors monitored by the survey in September. Civil engineering was the best-performing category. Survey respondents commented on robust demand for renewable energy infrastructure and a general uplift in work on major projects.
Oil prices rose on the mounting threat of a region-wide war in the Middle East
Oil prices rose on Friday and settled with their biggest weekly gains in over a year, although gains were limited as U.S. President Joe Biden discouraged Israel from targeting Iranian oil facilities. On a weekly basis, Brent crude gained over 8%, the most in a week since January 2023. WTI gained 9.1% week-over-week, the most since March 2023. Israel has sworn to strike Iran for launching a barrage of missiles at Israel last Tuesday after Israel assassinated the leader of Iran-backed Hezbollah. The events had oil analysts warning clients of the potential ramifications of a broader war in the Middle East.
Vietnam quarterly growth hits two-year high due to exports and investment
According to Government’s General Statistics Office report, Vietnam’s GDP grew 7.4%YoY in the third quarter, surpassing the second quarter's revised 7.09%YoY expansion, which was the strongest economic growth in two years in the quarter to end-September, as strong exports and industrial production and rising foreign investment offset the effects last month of Asia's strongest typhoon so far this year. Data for September showed that exports rose 10.7%YoY while industrial production was up 10.8%YoY. Foreign investment inflows in the first nine months of this year rose 8.9%YoY to $17.3 billion.
Dollar seen a strong rally amid rising Middle East tensions
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.53, +1.46 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.505, +1.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.98, +13.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.03 Moving in a range of 33.31-33.41 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.25-33.55 today. The US Dollar may largely determine the size of the Fed's next rate cut and the frequency of further cuts. The market generally expects a weak report, with a 0.3% rise in average earnings and around 140,000 new jobs created in September. Meanwhile, gold was hovering near record highs as US Dollar strengthens amid geopolitical uncertainty.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
