- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.99-33.05 this morning supportive level at 32.90 resistance level at 33.20
- SET Index: 1,451.4 (-0.91%), 2 Oct 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,709.5 (+0.01%), 2 Oct 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.501 (+0.28 bps), 2 Oct 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.79 (+5.00 bps), 2 Oct 2024
- US private employers added more jobs than anticipated in September
- Barkin says progress has been made, but the Fed can't claim victory yet
- Japan's service sector grows for the third month, but confidence falls
- Japan's new PM urges the BOJ to be cautious with future rate hikes
- Dollar rises on better-than-expected ADP job growth
US private employers added more jobs than anticipated in September
The September ADP report exceeded all analyst expectations, showing an increase of 143,000 jobs, surpassing the 120,000 consensus and the most optimistic forecast of 143,000. This marks an acceleration from the revised previous figure of 103,000. The report noted a broad recovery in job creation after a five-month slowdown, with only the information sector experiencing job losses. Manufacturing saw job growth for the first time since April. Regarding wages, the median annual pay increase for those staying in their jobs decreased slightly to 4.7% from 4.8% year-over-year, while the increase for job changers dropped to 6.6% from 7.3%.
Barkin says progress has been made, but the Fed can't claim victory yet
Barkin said the Fed cannot claim victory over inflation and expects a slight decrease in core PCE next year. He noted that the 2024 Fed policy projection indicates another 50 basis points of cuts, easing rate pressures. Barkin is monitoring the impact of lower interest rates on home and auto sales to see if demand could outstrip supply. He mentioned that a "low hiring, low firing" labor market might continue, but worker demand could rise with overall demand. Recent labor actions and geopolitical conflicts pose inflation risks, requiring the Fed's vigilance.
Japan's service sector grows for the third month, but confidence falls
Japan's service sector activity grew for the third consecutive month in September, though the pace slowed and confidence fell, reflecting broader economic pressures amid weak manufacturing. The final au Jibun Bank Service purchasing managers' index (PMI) dropped to 53.1 in September from 53.7 in August, falling short of the flash estimate of 53.9 but remaining above the 50.0 mark.
Japan's new PM urges the BOJ to be cautious with future rate hikes
Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba anticipates that the Bank of Japan will carefully assess economic conditions before making any further interest rate increases. His earlier remarks on the necessity for monetary policy normalization come with particular conditions. The government wants the BOJ to align with its focus on exiting deflation and to thoughtfully evaluate any future rate hikes.
Dollar rises on better-than-expected ADP job growth
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.501, +0.28 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.49, +0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.79, +5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.61 moving in a range of 32.99 – 33.05 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.90 – 33.20 today. The dollar's strength continued, mainly due to stronger-than-expected ADP jobs data, rising to around 101.69. The euro dipped slightly and remained largely unaffected by ECB comments, with the Eurozone unemployment rate steady at 6.4%. EUR/USD fell throughout the US session, breaching its 50-day moving average and hitting a low of 1.1034. The Japanese yen underperformed, pressured by comments from Prime Minister Ishiba that dampened hawkish sentiment. Consequently, USD/JPY surged from 144.18 to above 146 for the day.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
