- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.58-32.61 this morning supportive level at 32.50 resistance level at 32.70
- SET Index: 1,462.1 (+0.98%), 24 Sep 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,732.9 (+0.3%), 24 Sep 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.494 (+0.14 bps), 24 Sep 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.74 (-1.00 bps), 24 Sep 2024
- U.S. consumer confidence dips below forecasts, indicating caution
- Drop in business confidence raises fears of a German recession
- RBA keeps rates steady, reaffirms commitment to lower inflation
- China launches stimulus package to boost economy and markets
- The dollar index continued to decline after weak economic data
U.S. consumer confidence dips below forecasts, indicating caution
The Conference Board (CB) reported a decline in the Consumer Confidence Index to 98.7, significantly below the forecast of 103.9 and down from 105.6. This drop indicates decreasing optimism about the economy, which may lead to lower consumer spending. The report highlighted negative views on current business conditions and a worsening perception of the labor market. Consumers are increasingly pessimistic about job prospects and less confident about future business conditions and income.
Drop in business confidence raises fears of a German recession
German business confidence fell for the fourth straight month in September, dropping more than expected and indicating a potential recession for the euro zone's largest economy. The Ifo Institute reported the business climate index at 85.4, down from 86.6 in August, while the current conditions index decreased to 84.4 from 86.4. The outlook for the coming months also worsened, with the index falling to 86.3 from 86.8.
RBA keeps rates steady, reaffirms commitment to lower inflation
The Reserve Bank of Australia kept interest rates steady at 4.35% on Tuesday, reaffirming its commitment to reducing inflation, which it views as too high. While headline inflation has eased, underlying inflation remains “too high” by the bank’s standards. The RBA noted that longer-term inflation expectations are within its forecasts, but it does not expect prices to sustainably return to its target range until 2026, despite anticipated short-term decreases due to government support.
China launches stimulus package to boost economy and markets
On Tuesday, China’s central bank launched its largest stimulus since the pandemic to lift the economy from deflation and meet growth targets. People’s Bank of China Governor Pan Gongsheng announced cuts to the reserve requirement ratio, the seven-day policy rate, and mortgage rates to boost lending and alleviate loan burdens. He hinted at potential further cuts and introduced at least 500 billion yuan ($71 billion) in liquidity support for stocks, along with a swap facility for accessing the PBOC. While analysts welcomed the measures, they cautioned that more substantial action is needed to encourage consumer spending, and lower mortgage rates may not suffice to revive the housing market.
The dollar index continued to decline after weak economic data
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.494, +0.14 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.49, +0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.74, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 32.94 moving in a range of 32.58 – 32.61 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.50 – 32.70 today. The dollar weakened during the session after the dollar index struggled to maintain a brief rise above the 101.00 level, influenced by a positive risk environment and a surprising drop in U.S. Consumer Confidence. The euro overcame early challenges from disappointing German Ifo data, rebounding from support near the 1.1100 mark, while continuing to rise due to the dollar's decline. The Japanese yen remained mostly stable against other currencies but gained strength against the dollar in response to the weak U.S. economic data.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
