- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.26-33.36 this morning supportive level at 33.20 resistance level at 33.45
- SET Index: 1,435.5 (+0.78%), 16 Sep 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,633.1 (+0.1%), 16 Sep 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.531 (-1.33 bps), 16 Sep 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.63 (-3.00 bps), 16 Sep 2024
- New York's manufacturing index increased in September
- Bill Dudley: Fed should cut rates by 50bps
- Kazimir suggests the ECB delay its next rate cut until December
- US dollar hits over one-year low against yen amid expectations of a significant Fed rate cut
New York's manufacturing index increased in September
Factory activity in New York state unexpectedly grew for the first time in nearly a year, driven by stronger orders and shipments. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general business conditions index for September increased by 16.2 points to 11.5, surpassing all forecasts. Values above zero signify growth. The new orders measure surged more than 17 points to 9.4, the highest since April 2023, and the shipments gauge reached its highest level in over a year. Conversely, employment continued to contract for the 11th consecutive month, though hours worked grew modestly. Additionally, the six-month outlook for overall activity rose to its highest since March 2022, indicating that producers in the state are more optimistic about the economy. Both the outlooks for orders and shipments also improved.
Bill Dudley: Fed should cut rates by 50bps
Bill Dudley, former President of the New York Federal Reserve, recommends that the US Federal Reserve consider a 50-basis-point interest rate cut at its next meeting. He argues that this larger cut is necessary to prevent a potential recession and to better align policy with the Fed’s goals of price stability and sustainable employment. Dudley notes that while current conditions are somewhat balanced, the high interest rate remains problematic. He highlights that the unemployment rate has risen by 0.8 percentage points since January 2023 and warns that further increases could signal a recession. Dudley believes that a 50-basis-point cut would better match market expectations, whereas a smaller 25-basis-point cut might cause confusion about future policy. He also acknowledges the Fed’s caution about inflation, with Chair Jerome Powell wary of repeating past mistakes.
Kazimir suggests the ECB delay its next rate cut until December
On Monday, ECB Governing Council member Peter Kazimir suggested that the European Central Bank should likely wait until December before cutting interest rates again. Kazimir, known for his hawkish stance, emphasized the need for confirmation from incoming data to avoid the risk of easing policy too quickly and potentially regretting a premature rate cut before inflation is firmly under control.
US dollar hits over one-year low against yen amid expectations of a significant Fed rate cut
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.531, -1.33 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.525, -1.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.63, -3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.20 moving in a range of 33.26 – 33.36 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.20 – 33.45 today. On Monday, the Dollar weakened as markets anticipated a 50 basis point Fed rate cut. Former NY Fed President Dudley supported this view, forecasting the Fed's easing cycle to start with such a cut. The Dollar fell to lows before a strong NY Fed manufacturing report helped it recover slightly. The DXY index dropped from 101.01 to 100.58, then rebounded to around 100.75. The Euro benefited from the Dollar's weakness, with EUR/USD rising from 1.1076 to 1.1137, where it stayed just below as APAC trading started. The Japanese Yen remained mostly stable, with USD/JPY initially falling to 139.59 in the European morning but rebounding to 140.90 after the NY Fed manufacturing data.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics,
Investing, CEIC
