- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.20-33.24 this morning supportive level at 33.10 resistance level at 33.40
- SET Index: 1,424.4 (+0.20%), 13 Sep 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,626.0 (+0.50%), 13 Sep 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.544 (-1.23 bps), 13 Sep 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.66 (-2.00 bps), 13 Sep 2024
- Former NY Fed President Dudley supports a 50-basis-point rate cut
- US consumer sentiment rises in September as inflation eases
- China’s economic data slowdown sparks urgent calls for stimulus
- China’s new home prices fell at their fastest rate in over nine years in August
- The dollar is down due to rate cut bets
Former NY Fed President Dudley supports a 50-basis-point rate cut
Former New York Federal Reserve President Bill Dudley endorsed a 50-basis-point interest rate cut, according to a Reuters report on Friday. Dudley noted that current rates are 150 to 200 basis points above the neutral rate, where monetary policy is balanced. He had previously supported starting rate cuts in July. Additionally, an article by WSJ's Timiraos on Thursday mentioned a former advisor to Powell suggesting that a 50-basis-point cut is under consideration.
US consumer sentiment rises in September as inflation eases
US consumer sentiment hit a four-month high in September, driven by lower short-term inflation expectations and anticipated reduced borrowing costs. The University of Michigan's index rose to 69.0 from 67.9 in August, surpassing the 68.5 forecast. One-year inflation expectations fell to 2.7%, the lowest since December 2020, while the five-year forecast edged up to 3.1%. More consumers now view unemployment as a greater concern than inflation, suggesting the Federal Reserve might lower interest rates soon.
China’s economic data slowdown sparks urgent calls for stimulus
China’s economy lost steam in August, with widespread cooling across various sectors, raising concerns about meeting the government’s annual growth target. Factory output, consumption, and investment all slowed more than expected, and the jobless rate unexpectedly reached a six-month high. Industrial output grew 4.5% year-on-year, down from 5.1% in July and below the 4.7% forecast. Retail sales increased 2.1%, a slowdown from July’s 2.7% and below the 2.5% projection. Fixed-asset investment rose 3.4% year-to-date, down from 3.6% in the first seven months and missing the 3.5% forecast. The urban unemployment rate edged up to 5.3%, the highest since February.
China’s new home prices fell at their fastest rate in over nine years in August
In August, China’s new home prices fell 5.3% year-on-year, the sharpest drop in over nine years and worse than July's 4.9% decline. Prices also decreased 0.7% monthly for the fourteenth straight month. Despite policy efforts like lowering mortgage rates, recovery has been uneven, with major cities seeing some demand revival, while smaller cities with high unsold inventories remain vulnerable.
The dollar is down due to rate cut bets
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.544, -1.23 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.54, -1.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.66, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.32 moving in a range of 33.20 – 33.24 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.10 – 33.40 today. On Friday, the dollar was relatively stable, trading between 100.880 and 101.190, with attention on the upcoming FOMC meeting. It briefly dipped below 101 due to dovish repricing. The Japanese yen was strong, with USD/JPY falling to 140.29, its lowest since December 2023. The euro was steady after ECB comments, peaking at 1.1101 but not sustaining this level, as reduced expectations for a dovish ECB and Fed repricing influenced its movement.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics,
Investing, CEIC
