- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.74-33.805 this morning supportive level at 33.60 resistance level at 33.90
- SET Index: 1,415.4 (-0.89%), 11 Sep 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,554.1 (+1.1%), 11 Sep 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.549 (-0.71 bps), 11 Sep 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.65 (+0.00 bps), 11 Sep 2024
- Core US inflation rises, lowering chances of a large Fed rate cut
- The heated Trump-Harris debate gave Wall Street few policy details
- BOJ policymaker signals readiness to raise rates if inflation on track
- US dollar mixed as inflation report hints at smaller Fed rate cut
Core US inflation rises, lowering chances of a large Fed rate cut
In August, headline US consumer prices increased by 0.2% from the previous month, consistent with the July rate. However, the core consumer price index showed a slight acceleration, which might influence the Federal Reserve’s decision on interest rate cuts at its next meeting. The monthly headline CPI met economists' expectations, and the annual rate decreased to 2.5% from 2.9% in July. On the other hand, core consumer prices, excluding more volatile categories like food and energy, rose by 0.3% month-over-month, surpassing the anticipated 0.2%. The year-over-year core CPI matched forecasts at 3.2%, maintaining the same rate as in July.
The heated Trump-Harris debate gave Wall Street few policy details
In a heated debate on Tuesday night, Trump and Harris sparred over various issues, including the economy and immigration, each aiming to make a game-changing impact in a closely contested race. Their exchanges did not provide investors with new insights on critical market-moving topics such as tariffs, taxes, and regulation. However, online prediction markets indicated an increased likelihood of a Harris victory in November: her odds in PredictIt's 2024 presidential market rose to 55 cents from 53 cents, while Trump's odds dropped to 47 cents from 52 cents. Despite this, some investors think that even a minor shift in candidate perceptions could be crucial in a tight race likely to be decided by a few thousand votes in key states. According to polling averages from the New York Times, the candidates are effectively tied in the crucial battleground states.
BOJ policymaker signals readiness to raise rates if inflation on track
On Wednesday, Bank of Japan policymaker Junko Nakagawa indicated that the central bank plans to keep raising interest rates if inflation follows their projected path, suggesting that last month's market turmoil has not altered their strategy for gradual rate hikes. However, the central bank will need to consider how such market fluctuations might affect economic and price forecasts when deciding on further rate increases. Nakagawa stated that because real interest rates are currently very low, adjustments to monetary policy will be made to sustainably and steadily reach the 2% inflation target if economic and price projections are met. She also noted that Japan's tight labor market and rising import prices present upward risks to the country's inflation outlook.
US dollar mixed as inflation report hints at smaller Fed rate cut
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.549, -0.71 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.545, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.65, +0.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.61 moving in a range of 33.74 – 33.805 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.60 – 33.90 today. The dollar made modest gains after initially facing pressure from the Japanese yen strength during the Asian session and concerns that US VP Harris’s perceived win in the Presidential Debate might lead to a USD-negative outcome, given expectations of a more dovish Fed policy and less aggressive tariffs compared to Trump. However, the dollar rebounded, supported by mixed US CPI data, which reduced the likelihood of a 50bps rate cut at next week's Fed meeting. The euro gave up early gains and stabilized against the dollar, with support around the 1.1000 level. The Japanese yen saw fluctuations, reversing its gains from the Asian session that were fueled by comments from BoJ's Nakagawa. The rebound in USD/JPY was supported by US CPI data and a better risk appetite.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics,
Investing, CEIC
