- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.57-33.59 this morning supportive level at 33.40 resistance level at 33.70
- SET Index: 1,404.3 (+2.80%), 5 Sep 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,503.4 (-0.3%), 5 Sep 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.553 (-0.07 bps), 5 Sep 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.73 (-4.0 bps), 5 Sep 2024
- US private payrolls post smallest increase in 3-1/2 years in August
- U.S. service sector stable in August; employment slow
- Thailand's headline inflation eases in August
- Dollar falls, struggling to recover losses before payroll report
US private payrolls post smallest increase in 3-1/2 years in August
In August, U.S. private employers added the fewest workers in 3.5 years, with the previous month's figures also revised downward, suggesting a possible significant slowdown in the labor market. Private payrolls rose by 99,000 jobs last month, the smallest increase since January 2021, following a revised gain of 111,000 in July. Economists had predicted an increase of 145,000 jobs, up from the previously reported 122,000. After this data release, all attention is on the US payrolls data due Friday, which will seemingly dictate the magnitude of the Federal Reserve rate cut on September 16th, as the Central Bank has shifted its focus to the employment side of the mandate, rather than the inflation side.
U.S. service sector stable in August; employment slow
U.S. services sector activity remained stable in August, though employment growth slowed, reflecting a cooling labor market. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported on Thursday that its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) was essentially unchanged at 51.5 in August, up slightly from 51.4 in July. Economists had expected a slight drop to 51.1. The report showed minor declines in both the business activity and employment indexes. Nevertheless, the consultancy highlights that the services index is outperforming the manufacturing index, underscoring the ongoing strength of consumer spending, which continues to bolster the broader economy.
Thailand's headline inflation eases in August
In August, Thailand's annual headline inflation slowed down as food prices increased while energy prices decreased. The headline Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose by 0.35% compared to the same month last year, down from a 0.83% increase in July and below the anticipated 0.40% rise. From January to August, the average annual headline inflation was 0.15%, and the commerce ministry maintained its full-year forecast of between 0% and 1%. The core CPI, which excludes food and energy prices, rose by 0.62% in August, slightly above the expected 0.55%. The average annual core inflation for January to August was 0.44%. Thai Inflation is expected to increase in September due to rising diesel prices and flooding.
Dollar falls, struggling to recover losses before payroll report
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.553, -0.07 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.55, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.73, -4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.82 moving in a range of 33.57 – 33.59 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.40 - 33.70 today. On Thursday, the Dollar experienced weakness during a volatile session. The index initially dropped to 100.96 after the ADP national employment report revealed a lower-than-expected increase of 99,000 jobs. However, the dollar rebounded quickly before the ISM Services data was released, rising to a new high of 101.37. Later in the US afternoon, the dollar weakened due to improved risk sentiment and a lack of significant new developments. G10 currencies generally gained against the dollar, though to varying extents. The euro fluctuated between 1.1076 and 1.1119, currently hovering around 1.11. The Japanese yen reached a high of 144.22 before falling to 142.86. The yen initially strengthened after the US ADP report due to a broader Dollar sell-off but later retraced following the ISM data.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics,
Investing, CEIC
