- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.24-34.27 this morning supportive level at 34.15 resistance level at 34.45
- SET Index: 1,337.8 (+0.73%), 21 Aug 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,620.9 (+0.42%), 21 Aug 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.570 (-0.07 bps), 21 Aug 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.79 (-3.0 bps), 21 Aug 2024
- Fed steaming toward September rate cut, minutes from previous meeting show
- Payrolls sharply revised down by 818,000
- Japan manufacturing PMI lags in August, services strong
- Thai central bank maintains key rate, awaits stimulus details
- Dollar falls after job revisions, with some Fed officials favoring a July rate cut
Fed steaming toward September rate cut, minutes from previous meeting show
The FOMC Minutes from July 30-31 aligned with Fed Chair Powell's earlier comments, noting a possible September rate cut based on upcoming data. While some members saw recent inflation progress and rising unemployment as justifying a 25bps cut, most favored holding rates steady. The Minutes also revealed increased concern about employment risks and reduced focus on inflation, showing the Fed's balanced attention to both goals.
Payrolls sharply revised down by 818,000
The U.S. economy added far fewer jobs over the past year than initially reported, following a major downward revision of previous data. The BLS revised payroll numbers down by 818,000, showing that job growth from April 2023 to March 2024 was weaker than earlier estimates. Instead of a 2.9 million job increase, the actual rise was only 2.1 million. This adjustment means an average monthly increase of 178,000 jobs, down from the previously reported 246,000, likely strengthening the case for an interest rate cut by the Federal Reserve next month.
Japan manufacturing PMI lags in August, services strong
Japanese manufacturing activity declined as major automakers faced ongoing output disruptions, exacerbated by a scandal involving falsified safety checks. The flash au Jibun Bank Japan Manufacturing PMI was 49.5 for August, slightly below the expected 49.8 but up from July's 49.1. In contrast, services activity continued to grow, with the au Jibun Bank Japan Services PMI rising to 54.0 from 53.7 in July. This growth in the services sector was driven by stronger local demand and the positive effects of significant wage increases earlier in the year.
Thai central bank maintains key rate, awaits stimulus details
Thailand's central bank decided to keep its key interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive meeting, maintaining the rate at 2.50%, its highest level in over a decade. The decision, made by a 6-1 vote, reflects the bank's view that the current rate is neutral and appropriate while awaiting potential changes in economic stimulus policies from the new prime minister. The Bank of Thailand's (BOT) monetary policy committee believes that this rate supports the economy moving towards its potential and helps maintain macro-financial stability.
Dollar falls after job revisions, with some Fed officials favoring a July rate cut
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.570, -0.07 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.565, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.79, -3.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.21 moving in a range of 34.24 – 34.27 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.15 - 34.45 today. The Dollar Index weakened further on Wednesday, falling before and after the BLS payrolls revision. Initially, the index ticked up slightly but then declined, falling below 101 and reaching 100.92. The euro gained for the fourth consecutive day, climbing to 1.11 and pushing its YTD high to 1.1173. Safe haven currencies gained strength due to rising US Treasuries, with the Japanese yen falling to 144.46.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics,
Investing, CEIC
