- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.45-35.51 this morning supportive level at 35.35 resistance level at 35.60
- SET Index: 1,274.7 (-2.97%), 5 Aug 2024
- S&P 500 Index: 5,186.3 (-3.04%), 5 Aug 2024
- Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.521 (-3.74 bps), 5 Aug 2024
- US 10-year treasury yield: 3.78 (-2.0 bps), 5 Aug 2024
- US service sector rebounds in July
- Goolsbee: Fed won't overreact like markets
- Investor confidence in the euro zone drops in August
- China's services activity expands further
- Dollar down as US rate cut bets rise, yen surges
US service sector rebounds in July
In July, U.S. services sector activity recovered from a four-year low, with new orders and employment rising for the first time in six months. This uptick may alleviate recession concerns prompted by last month's unemployment spike and ongoing stock market declines. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) reported that its nonmanufacturing PMI rose to 51.4 from 48.8 in June, the lowest since May 2020. Economists had expected a PMI of 51.0. The index for new orders increased to 52.4 from 47.3 in June, while the services employment measure rose to 51.1 from 46.1 in June, marking its first increase since January.
Goolsbee: Fed won't overreact like markets
Goolsbee, a 2025 Fed voter, discussed the Fed's current restrictive stance on CNBC, noting it's only necessary if there's a risk of overheating, which current data doesn't suggest. He mentioned that if the economy worsens, the Fed will take action and that the current level of restrictiveness is among the highest in decades. Regarding the stock market, Goolsbee said the Fed would respond if trends indicate a slowdown in growth. He avoided commenting on emergency rate cuts, stating that all options are on the table. Finally, he acknowledged the recent weak jobs report but cautioned against overinterpreting it, emphasizing the Fed's need to monitor labor market conditions closely.
Investor confidence in the euro zone drops in August
Investor confidence in the euro zone fell for the second straight month in August, dropping to its lowest level since January. The Sentix index declined to -13.9 from -7.3, while expectations fell sharply to -8.8 from 1.5. Concerns about geopolitical instability, German state elections, and the U.S. presidential election are contributing to the weakened sentiment.
China's services activity expands further
China's services sector saw accelerated growth in July, driven by increased new orders. The Caixin/S&P Global services PMI rose to 52.1 from 51.2 in June, marking expansion for the 19th consecutive month. However, the pace of overseas demand slowed to its lowest in 11 months. In contrast, the official services PMI indicated a slowdown in July, with declines in retail sales, capital market services, and real estate services.
Dollar down as US rate cut bets rise, yen surges
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.521, -3.74 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.52, -4.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.78, -2.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.21 moving in a range of 35.45 – 35.51 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.35 - 35.60 today. The dollar continued to decline following the non-farm payrolls report as recession concerns drove demand for safe-haven currencies. Money markets briefly anticipated a 50 basis point cut at the September meeting, and a Bloomberg report indicated a 60% chance of a 25 basis point emergency rate cut in the coming week. The euro gained from the dollar's weakness, with EUR/USD briefly rising above 1.1000 before facing resistance. The Japanese yen also strengthened amid market turmoil during the Asian session, though USD/JPY rebounded from its lows near the 142.00 level.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics,
Investing, CEIC
