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Daily Market Insight: 20 June 2024

20 Jun 2024
  •  USDTHB: moving in the range 36.655-36.70 this morning supportive level at 36.55 resistance level at 36.80

·      SET Index: 1,303.8 (+0.49%), 19 June 2024

·      S&P 500 Index: 5,487.0 (+0.25%), 18 June 2024

·      Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.74 (-2.11 bps), 19 June 2024

·      US 10-year treasury yield: 4.22 (-6.00 bps), 18 June 2024

 

  • UK inflation drops to 2% target for first time since 2021
  • Japan’s Exports Grow Most Since 2022 on Boost from Weak Yen
  • Most Japan firms see no need to follow the U.S. with tariffs on China
  • Dollar struggles for direction, euro close to 1 month low

 

UK inflation drops to 2% target for first time since 2021 British inflation returned to its 2% target for the first time in nearly three years in May, but strong underlying price pressures all but rule out a pre-election interest rate cut. While Prime Minister Rishi Sunak welcomed the fall in headline inflation in May, it has likely come too late to turn around his fortunes in British elections on July 4 or to prompt a Bank of England rate cut on Thursday. Office for National Statistics data showed services price inflation, which the BoE thinks gives a better picture of medium-term inflation risks, was 5.7%. That was down from 5.9% in April, but higher than the 5.5% economists had forecast or the 5.3% predicted by the BoE last month.

Japan’s Exports Grow Most Since 2022 on Boost from Weak Yen
Japan’s exports grew at the fastest clip since late 2022 as the weak yen boosted their value, a positive development for the nation’s manufacturing sector. Exports increased 13.5% from a year ago in May, marking a sixth month of gains. The gain outpaced economists’ consensus estimates of a 12.7% increase, and it was the largest since November of 2022. Imports advanced 9.5%, in line with estimates. The trade deficit came to ¥1.22 trillion ($7.7 billion), widening from ¥466 billion in April.

Most Japan firms see no need to follow the U.S. with tariffs on China
According to the Reuters, Most Japanese companies see no need for their government to follow the U.S. in raising tariffs on Chinese imports, saying excessive production capacity in China's industrial sector does not affect them. Around 61% of respondents to the survey, conducted June 5-14, said there was no need for Japan to embark on similar measures. The rest said Japan should. Around 53% said China's excessive production capacity had little to no impact on their business. In contrast, the European Union has increased duties on EV imports from China.

Dollar struggles for direction, euro close to 1-1/2-month low
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.76, -0.44 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.77, -1.0 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.22, -6.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.70 moving in a range of 36.655-36.70 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.55-36.80 today. The dollar struggled for direction on Wednesday while the euro remained close to its recent lows on concerns that a new government in France could weaken fiscal discipline, increasing the debt risk premium across the euro area. Meanwhile sterling rose after data showed British service inflation was stronger than expected. The dollar index was flat around 105.20 as U.S. markets are closed on Wednesday.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC