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Daily Market Insight: 18 June 2024

18 Jun 2024
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 36.80-36.84 this morning supportive level at 36.65 resistance level at 36.95

·         SET Index: 1,296.6 (-0.77%), 17 June 2024

·         S&P 500 Index: 5,473.2 (+0.72%), 17 June 2024

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.77 (+0.05 bps), 17 June 2024

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.28 (+8.00 bps), 17 June 2024

 

  • New York Manufacturing Shrinks Less Than Forecast as Prices Cool
  • Fed’s Harker Says One Rate Cut in 2024 Is Appropriate Based on Outlook
  • China's factory output disappoints, property sector stuck in sluggishness
  • Dollar wobbles as markets await more Fed clues



New York Manufacturing Shrinks Less Than Forecast as Prices Cool
New York state factory activity contracted in June by less than forecast while a measure of prices received by producers fell to an almost one-year low. The Federal Reserve Bank of New York’s general business conditions index increased 9.6 points to minus 6. A reading below zero indicates contraction, and the median forecast in a Bloomberg survey of economists called for a minus 10.The gauge of prices received by state manufacturers dropped 7 points to 7.1, while an index of prices paid for materials decreased to the lowest level since the start of the year. Meanwhile, the six-month outlook for overall activity jumped 15.6 points to 30.1, the highest level since March 2022 and a sign the state’s producers are more upbeat about the economy’s prospects. The outlook for both orders and shipments strengthened.

Fed’s Harker Says One Rate Cut in 2024 Is Appropriate Based on Outlook
Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia President Patrick Harker said he views one interest-rate cut as appropriate for this year based on his current forecast, adding he’d like to see “several” more months of improving inflation. Harker said a recent report showing consumer prices cooled in May was “very welcome,” but policymakers need more evidence to be confident inflation is headed to the central bank’s 2% goal. He said he is open-minded to other paths for policy depending on what those reports show as uncertainty remains high.

China's factory output disappoints, property sector stuck in sluggishness
China's May industrial output lagged expectations and a slowdown in the property sector showed no signs of easing despite policy support, adding pressure on Beijing to shore up growth. Apart from retail sales that beat forecasts due to a holiday boost, the flurry of data was largely downbeat, underscoring a bumpy recovery for the world's second-largest economy. May industrial output grew 5.6% from a year earlier, slowing from the 6.7% pace in April and below expectations for a 6.0% increase in a Reuters poll. In contrast, retail sales, a gauge of consumption, in May rose 3.7% on year, accelerating from a 2.3% rise in April and marking the quickest growth since February. Analysts had expected a 3.0% expansion due to a five-day public holiday earlier in the month. Fixed asset investment rose 4.0% in the first five months of 2024 from the same period a year earlier, versus expectations for a 4.2% rise. It grew 4.2% in the January to April period.

Dollar wobbles as markets await more Fed clues
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.77, +0.05 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB346A) was 2.765, +0.5 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.28, +8.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.76 Moving in a range of 36.80-36.84 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.65-36.95 today. The dollar drifted lower on Tuesday, extending the previous day's losses against the euro and sterling, as market jitters over the risks of a far-right French government receded. The U.S. currency failed to get a lift from a rise in Treasury yields overnight, with investors awaiting a key retail sales report and comments from Federal Reserve officials to better gauge the timing and pace of interest rate cuts. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the currency against the euro, sterling and four other major peers, edged slightly lower to 105.26 in early Asian trading hours, continuing its retreat from Friday's 1-month high of 105.80.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC