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Daily Market Insight: 6 June 2024

6 Jun 2024
  • USDTHB: moving in the range 36.44-36.60 this morning supportive level at 36.35 resistance level at 36.60

·         SET Index: 1,338.3 (+0.07%), 5 June 2024

·         S&P 500 Index: 5,354.0 (+1.33%), 5 June 2024

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.80 (+0.13 bps), 5 June 2024

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.29 (-4.00 bps), 5 June 2024

 

  • US private payroll growth slows to 4-month low; small firms cut jobs
  • Euro zone business activity expands at fastest rate in a year, PMI shows
  • China's exports seen rising more quickly in May, boosting growth prospects
  • US dollar rises as strong service sector data muddles Fed easing this year

 

US private payroll growth slows to 4-month low; small firms cut jobs Hiring by US private employers slid to a four-month low in May, with small firms reducing staff, and wage gains for job changers moderated for a second month, according to a report on Wednesday that added to signs the job market is cooling. Private payrolls increased by 152,000 jobs last month - the fewest since January and well below the average of 194,000 over the past year - after rising by a downwardly revised 188,000 in April, the ADP Employment report showed. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast private employment increasing by 175,000 last month. Gains were led for a second straight month by the largest employers, with those having payrolls of 500 or more workers adding 98,000 people, about the same as the month before. Mid-sized companies employing between 50 and 499 workers added 79,000 jobs compared with 59,000 in April.

 

Euro zone business activity expands at fastest rate in a year, PMI shows Euro zone business activity expanded at its quickest rate in a year in May as growth in the bloc's dominant services industry outpaced contraction in manufacturing, according to a private survey, which also showed price pressures easing. HCOB's composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) for the currency union, compiled by S&P Global and seen as a good gauge of overall economic health, rose to 52.2 in May from April's 51.7, its highest since May 2023. Although it was a tad below a preliminary 52.3 estimate, it remained above the 50 mark separating growth from contraction for the third straight month. The services PMI eased slightly to 53.2 last month from an 11-month high of 53.3 in April, just below the flash estimate of 53.3.

 

China's exports seen rising more quickly in May, boosting growth prospects China's exports likely grew more quickly and for a second month in May thanks to improving overseas demand, giving officials some comfort as they navigate numerous challenges at home to shore up an uneven economic recovery. Trade data for May is expected to show outbound shipments grew 6.0% year-on-year by value, according to the median forecast of 32 economists in a Reuters poll, up from the 1.5% increase recorded in April. Imports likely grew 4.2% last month, slower than the 8.4% gain seen in April. Over recent months, a flurry of data has shown different parts of the $18.6 trillion economy recovering at varying speeds. While first quarter growth blew past forecasts and strong March export and output data suggested improving global demand might aid officials' efforts to get the economy back on a more even keel, more recent indicators reflecting soft domestic consumption have eroded much of that earlier optimism.

 

US dollar rises as strong service sector data muddles Fed easing this year The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.80, +0.13 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.80, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.29, -4.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.60. Moving in a range of 36.44-36.60 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.35-36.60 today. The US dollar drifted higher after data showed the services sector in the world's largest economy rebounded in May after contracting the month before, highlighting uncertainty surrounding the expected start of the Federal Reserve's easing cycle later this year. The Institute for Supply Management said its nonmanufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 53.8 last month from 49.4 in April. May's reading, the highest since August, overshot estimates of a 50.8 reading. In afternoon trading, the dollar index was up 0.1% at 104.28, after earlier hitting 103.99 on Tuesday, its lowest since April 9.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC