- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.60-35.63 this morning supportive level at 35.45 resistance level at 35.70
· SET Index: 1,400.0 (+0.22%), 7 Feb 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,995.1 (+0.82%), 7 Feb 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.62 (-2.02 bps), 7 Feb 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.09 (+0.00 bps), 7 Feb 2024
- US trade deficit rises marginally in December; narrows sharply in 2023
- Fed policymakers signal no rush to cut US interest rates
- China's consumer prices fall 0.8% y/y, factory deflation persists
- Dollar oscillates on less dovish Fed comments; yuan steady after inflation data
US trade deficit rises marginally in December; narrows sharply in 2023 The US trade deficit widened slightly in December but contracted by the most in 14 years in 2023 as imports declined and exports jumped to a record high. The report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showed the United States' rising status as a major oil producer, with the inflation-adjusted value of petroleum exports surging 15.9% to a record high in December. The nation is now a net oil exporter and has reduced its dependence of foreign oil, helping to shrink the current account deficit. Economists expected trade, which contributed to gross domestic product growth last year, to remain mostly supportive to the economy in 2024, though Red Sea shipping disruptions and drought in the Panama Canal posed risks.
Fed policymakers signal no rush to cut US interest rates US central bankers want to hold off on cutting interest rates until they have more confidence that inflation is headed down to 2%, and on Wednesday gave a range of reasons for feeling little urgency to start easing policy soon or to move quickly once they do. Last week the Federal Reserve held the policy rate steady in the 5.25%-5.5% range, where it has been since last July, and Fed Chair Jerome Powell said there would likely not be enough data by the next meeting, in March, to feel sure they have made enough progress against inflation to reduce borrowing costs. The strength of the labor market and the economy, she said, suggests that cooling will take some time, and rate cuts should be gradual and methodical when they start. In December most Fed policymakers forecast three or more interest-rate cuts this year.
China's consumer prices fall 0.8% y/y, factory deflation persists China's consumer prices extended their decline for a fourth month in January while producer prices also dropped, underscoring deflationary risks facing the world's second-biggest economy as it struggles to mount a solid recovery. The consumer price index (CPI) fell 0.8% in January from a year earlier, after a 0.3% drop in December, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. The CPI rose 0.3% month-on-month from a 0.1% uptick the previous month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a 0.5% fall year-on-year and a 0.4% gain month-on-month. The producer price index (PPI) slid 2.5% from a year earlier in January after a 2.7% fall the previous month, compared with a 2.6% slide forecast in the Reuters poll.
Dollar oscillates on less dovish Fed comments; yuan steady after inflation data The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.62, -2.02 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.63, -4.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.09, +0.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.52 Moving in a range of 35.60-35.63 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.45-35.70 today. The US dollar was trading in a tight range on Thursday as traders digested less dovish remarks from policymakers overnight and looked ahead to fresh economic data from the United States. Attention was also on inflation data out of China in the Asian morning amid concerns about deflation in the world's second-largest economy. Overnight, several Fed speakers gave a range of reasons for feeling little urgency to start easing policy in the United States soon or to move quickly once they do. The market is pricing in an 18.5% chance the Fed will begin to cut rates in March, down significantly from the start of the year, according to CME Group's FedWatch Tool shows. Traders see a nearly 60% chance of a 25 basis point cut in May.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
