- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.295-35.36 this morning supportive level at 35.20 resistance level at 35.50
· SET Index: 1,368.0 (+0.25%), 1 Feb 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,906.2 (+1.24%), 1 Feb 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.64 (-1.13 bps), 1 Feb 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.87 (-12.00 bps), 1 Feb 2024
- Strong US worker productivity keeps labor costs in check in fourth quarter
- US job cuts more than double in January
- Euro zone inflation dips but core figures may disappoint
- Dollar falls, traders price for rate cut by May
Strong US worker productivity keeps labor costs in check in fourth quarter Nonfarm productivity, which measures hourly output per worker, increased at a 3.2% annualized rate last quarter, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Data for the third quarter was revised lower to show productivity growing at a still-solid 4.9% rate instead of the previously reported 5.2%. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast productivity increasing at a 2.5% rate. Productivity expanded at a 2.7% pace from a year ago. Productivity growth averaged 1.2% in 2023 after contracting 1.9% in 2022. Since the fourth quarter of 2019, labor productivity has grown at an annual rate of 1.6%, 0.1-percentage point above the pace during the previous business cycle, which ran from the fourth quarter of 2007 through the fourth quarter of 2019. It is below its long-term rate of 2.1%
US job cuts more than double in January Job cut announcements in January increased to its highest level in 10 months as employers in the financial and technology sectors launched restructuring efforts. Announced layoffs reached 82,307 in January, a 136% surge from December’s 34,817, according to data released by outplacement firm Challenger, Gray & Christmas, which helps companies with the offboarding process for employees. It was the highest monthly total since March 2023. On a yearly basis, announced job cuts overall fell 20% from January 2023. Employers in the financial industry announced 23,238 job cuts, more than double the number from a year earlier.
Euro zone inflation dips but core figures may disappoint Euro zone inflation eased as expected last month but underlying price pressures fell less than forecast, likely boosting the European Central Bank's argument that rate cuts should not be rushed, even if the next move is still going to be policy easing. Consumer inflation in the 20 nations sharing the euro dipped to 2.8% in January from 2.9% in December, in line with expectations and inching towards the ECB's own 2% target, data from Eurostat, the EU's statistics agency. Price growth, now a long way from its peak in double digit territory in late 2022, fell as unprocessed food, energy and industrial goods inflation all slowed. But underlying price growth, a key measure watched by the ECB because it excludes volatile food and energy costs, only dipped to 3.3% from 3.4% and came above forecasts for 3.2%.
Dollar falls, traders price for rate cut by May The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.64, -1.13 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.64, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.87, -12.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.51 Moving in a range of 35.295-35.36 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.20-35.50 today. The dollar fell against the euro and yen on Thursday as investors continued to bet the Federal Reserve is closer to cutting interest rates, even after Chairman Jerome Powell said that a move in March was unlikely. Powell said on Wednesday that rates had peaked and would move lower in coming months, with inflation continuing to fall and an expectation of sustained job and economic growth. But he declined to declare victory in the bank's two-year inflation fight, vouch that it had achieved a sought-after "soft landing" for the economy or promise that cuts would come as soon as the March 19-20 meeting. Traders are now pricing in a 39% probability of a March rate cut, and a 94% chance of a rate reduction by May, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
