- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.575-35.705 this morning supportive level at 35.50 resistance level at 35.75
· SET Index: 1,369.9 (-0.91%), 22 Jan 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,850.4 (+0.22%), 22 Jan 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.76 (-1.56 bps), 22 Jan 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.11 (-4.00 bps), 22 Jan 2024
- Economists increasingly sure US will avoid recession
- Japan shares hit 34-yr highs, yen steady ahead of BOJ decision
- China keeps benchmark lending rates steady amid pressure on yuan
- US dollar flat as Japan, European policy meetings loom
Economists increasingly sure US will avoid recession The US economy should avoid a recession in the coming year, according to an increasingly large majority of economists polled by the National Association of Business Economics. Some 91% of respondents to the latest NABE survey, assigned a probability of 50% or less to the US entering a recession over the next 12 months. That was up from 79% in the October survey, and a far cry from the view a year ago, when a majority of economists expected a recession as the Federal Reserve raised interest rates to fight high inflation. The rising optimism apparent in the survey is in line with much of the latest economic data, including a measure of consumer sentiment that last week rose to a 2 1/2-year high. Also, inflation has been falling faster than expected, and the labor market is cooling but not collapsing.
Japan shares hit 34-yr highs, yen steady ahead of BOJ decision Japanese shares surged to fresh 34-year highs and the yen steadied, hoping the Bank of Japan will not rock the boat by pivoting away from its super easy policy any time soon, while Chinese stocks extended declines after a brutal session. Japan's Nikkei rose 0.6% to the highest level since February 1990, bringing the year-to-date gains to 9.9%. Meanwhile, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan edged 0.2% higher, but were down more than 6% this year due to the tumble in Chinese shares. The yen languished at 148.12 per dollar, having slid 5% this year. The BOJ is expected to retain its ultra-easy monetary settings later in the day, as policymakers assess the progress made by the economy towards meeting the conditions for phasing out the decade-long accommodative policy.
China keeps benchmark lending rates steady amid pressure on yuan China kept benchmark lending rates unchanged at their monthly fixing, matching expectations with Beijing seen as having limited scope for monetary easing amid downward pressure on the yuan. The decision came after the People's Bank of China (PBOC) surprised markets last week by holding its medium-term lending facility rate steady. The central bank has stood pat despite recent data underscoring the uneven nature of China's economic recovery and deflationary pressures pushing up real borrowing costs. The one-year loan prime rate (LPR) was kept at 3.45%, and the five-year LPR was unchanged at 4.20%. In a Reuters poll of 27 market watchers last week, all but one participant predicted both LPRs would stay unchanged.
US dollar flat as Japan,
European policy meetings loom The 10-year government bond
yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.76, -1.56 bps. The
benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.77, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the
latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.11, -4.00 bps. USDTHB on the
previous trading day closed around 35.57 Moving in a range of 35.575-35.705
this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.50-35.75 today.
The US dollar was little changed to modestly higher against a basket of
currencies on Monday ahead of central bank policy decisions in Japan and the
euro zone that may determine the currency's direction this year. Japan's yen
moved away from Friday's 148.80 per US dollar, its weakest in a month, and rose
to as high as 147.61, as the BOJ started its two-day policy meeting. The dollar
was last down 0.1% against the Japanese currency at 148.06 yen. Wagers for an
exit from negative rates at this meeting have been wound down following the New
Year's Day earthquake on Japan's west coast, alongside dovish BOJ commentary.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
