- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.445-35.575 this morning supportive level at 35.35 resistance level at 35.55
· SET Index: 1,382.5 (+0.33%), 19 Jan 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,839.8 (+1.22%), 19 Jan 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.78 (+0.56 bps), 19 Jan 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.15 (+1.00 bps), 19 Jan 2024
- US consumer sentiment races to 2-1/2-year high; inflation expectations ease
- Fed won't start rate cuts until May, traders now bet
- Annual foreign investment flows into China shrinks first time since 2012
- Dollar edges lower but poised for weekly gain as early rate cut hopes dim
US consumer sentiment races to 2-1/2-year high; inflation expectations ease US consumer sentiment improved in January, hitting the highest level in 2-1/2 years amid growing optimism over the outlook for inflation and household incomes, which bodes well for the economy's prospects this year. The better-than-expected reading in sentiment reported by the University of Michigan on Friday reflected a brightening of moods across all age and income groups, education and geographical locations as well as political affiliation. It suggested that Americans were finally warming up to the economy's resilience after much anxiety over high inflation, which has weighed on President Joe Biden's popularity. Consumers' inflation expectations over the next 12 months were the lowest in three years, good news for the Federal Reserve.
Fed won't start rate cuts until May, traders now bet The Federal Reserve won't start easing policy until May, capping a week during which stronger-than-expected economic data and commentary from central bankers chipped away at financial market confidence in the idea of an earlier start to interest-rate cuts. A widely watched measure of consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in 2-1/2 years, and Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee said the US central bank won't commit itself to rate cuts until it is surer that inflation is on track to a healthy 2%. Futures contracts that settle to the Fed's policy rate fell, and now reflect about a 47% chance of a Fed rate cut by March, down from 55% earlier in the day. Just a week ago the probability of an interest-rate cut in March from the current range of 5.25%-5.5% was seen at nearly 80%, reflecting faster-than-expected declines in inflation.
Annual foreign investment flows into China shrinks first time since 2012 Foreign direct investment into China shrank for the first time in over a decade in 2023, data released by the commerce ministry showed, underscoring the challenge Beijing faces if it is to win back foreign firms as Western governments talk up "de-risking". Overseas companies last year invested 1.13 trillion yuan ($157.1 billion) in the world's second-largest economy, according to a statement on Friday, which represents a drop of 8.0% year-on-year and marks the first decline since 2012. Foreign firms have been sour on the Asian giant ever since Beijing abandoned its strict zero-COVID curbs in late December 2022, with concerns over China's business environment, economic recovery, and politics weighing heavy on the minds of foreign investors.
Dollar edges lower but poised for weekly gain as early rate cut hopes dim The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.78, +0.56 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.77, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.15, +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.55 Moving in a range of 35.445-35.575 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.35-35.55 today. The US dollar edged lower on Friday, pausing after five straight sessions of gains but still poised for a weekly climb, as recent economic data and comments from Federal Reserve officials dampened expectations of rapid cuts in interest rates. The greenback strengthened early in the session after economic data showed the University of Michigan's preliminary reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 78.8 this month, the highest reading since July 2021, compared with 69.7 in December and the 70.0 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. The data comes on the heels of solid labor market and retail sales data earlier this week indicating the economy remained firm. Expectations for a cut from the Fed in March of at least 25 basis points (bps) have dipped below 50% according to CME's FedWatch Tool, with traders now targeting May as the likely month for a rate cut announcement.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
