- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.83-34.99 this morning supportive level at 34.75 resistance level at 35.00
· SET Index: 1,413.5 (+0.37%), 12 Jan 2024
· S&P 500 Index: 4,738.8 (+0.08%), 12 Jan 2024
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.73 (+0.72 bps), 12 Jan 2024
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.96 (-2.00 bps), 12 Jan 2024
- US producer prices unexpectedly fall; goods deflation seen persisting
- ECB rethinks rate cuts amid positive economic indicators
- China's 2023 bank lending at record high, but economy still struggling
- Dollar pares gains on soft US inflation data
US producer prices unexpectedly fall; goods deflation seen persisting US producer prices unexpectedly fell in December amid declining costs for goods such as diesel fuel and food, suggesting inflation would continue to subside and allow the Federal Reserve to start cutting interest rates this year. The producer price index for final demand dipped 0.1% last month, the Labor Department's Bureau of Labor Statistics said. Data for November was revised to show the PPI falling 0.1% instead of being unchanged as previously reported. The PPI has now declined for three consecutive months. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the PPI rebounding 0.1%. Goods prices dropped 0.4%, with a 12.4% decline in the cost of diesel fuel accounting for half of the decrease. Goods prices fell 0.3% in November. They have dropped for three straight months. Excluding food and energy, goods prices were unchanged after edging up 0.1% in November.
ECB rethinks rate cuts amid positive economic indicators The European Central Bank (ECB) is reassessing its approach to interest rate policy, signaling a potential shift away from the previously planned aggressive rate cuts for 2024. This reconsideration comes in light of recent economic trends that have been more optimistic than expected. ECB officials, including President Christine Lagarde and Chief Economist Philip Lane, have highlighted the necessity of waiting for more comprehensive economic data before making any decisions on rate normalization. The bank is closely monitoring upcoming wage statistics from Eurostat, focusing on the service sector's inflation and the growth of wages, which are currently surpassing equilibrium levels.
China's 2023 bank lending at record high, but economy still struggling New bank lending in China rose less than expected in December, but 2023 lending hit a new record as the central bank kept policy accommodative to support an unexpectedly shaky economic recovery. Chinese banks extended 1.17 trillion yuan ($163.31 billion) in new yuan loans in December, up from November but falling short of analysts' expectations, according to data released by the People's Bank of China on Friday. Analysts polled by Reuters had predicted new yuan loans would rise to 1.40 trillion yuan in December from 1.09 trillion yuan the previous month, and comparable with 1.4 trillion yuan a year earlier.
Dollar pares gains on soft US inflation data The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.73, +0.72 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.71, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.96, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.06 Moving in a range of 34.83-34.99 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.75-35.00 today. The dollar index pared gains on Friday after US producer prices unexpectedly fell in December, raising expectations of an early US rate cut. It was higher on the day, boosted by safety buying after US and British warplanes, ships and submarines launched dozens of air strikes across Yemen overnight. The producer price index for final demand dipped 0.1% last month, after a decline in the cost of goods, while prices for services were unchanged, increasing the chances of lower inflation in the months ahead. That led traders to add to bets for a rate cut in the coming months. Fed funds futures now imply a 79% chance of a March rate cut, up from 73% on Thursday, according to the CME Group's FedWatch Tool. Traders maintained their view that a March rate cut is likely even after consumer price inflation data came in above economists' expectations.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
