- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.44-35.54 this morning supportive level at 35.30 resistance level at 35.60
· SET Index: 1,419.8 (+1.12%), 3 Nov 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,358.3 (+2.80%), 3 Nov 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.22 (-1.90 bps), 3 Nov 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.57 (-10.00 bps), 3 Nov 2023
- US job growth slows down with unemployment rate hitting two-year high
- Eurozone unemployment edges up as ECB maintains high interest rates
- Japan service activity posts slowest growth this year
- Dollar maintains strength amid global economic uncertainties
US job growth slows down with unemployment rate hitting two-year high The US labor market experienced a slowdown in October, with job growth significantly underperforming. A total of 150,000 jobs were added, marking the smallest gain since June and falling short of the expected 180,000. Concurrently, the unemployment rate rose to a two-year high of 3.9%, reflecting a cooling labor market. The automobile industry was particularly impacted due to the United Auto Workers strike, which accounted for approximately 33,000 fewer workers. Manufacturing overall lost 35,000 jobs, largely attributed to strikes against Ford, Stellantis, and General Motors. The information sector also saw declines due to strikes by Hollywood writers and actors. Despite these challenges, some sectors witnessed significant job gains. Health care added a substantial 58,400 jobs, specifically in hospitals, physicians' offices, and home health care services. Government hiring also increased with an addition of 51,000 jobs, particularly in local government education. The construction sector gained 23,000 jobs with specialty trade contractors leading the growth.
Eurozone unemployment edges up as ECB maintains high interest rates The eurozone has witnessed a slight uptick in its unemployment rate, rising to 6.5% in September from August's record low of 6.4%. The total number of unemployed individuals increased by 69,000, bringing the figure to 11.017 million. Youth unemployment also saw a marginal increase, reaching 14.2%. This trend might bring some relief to policy makers at the European Central Bank (ECB) who have been expecting a cooling labor market to help ease inflationary pressures. However, concerns remain that if the ECB has over-tightened its monetary policy, it could inadvertently fuel higher unemployment rates as the economy slows down. In Q3, the euro-area's economy unexpectedly contracted by 0.1%, attributed to low private consumption and a slump in global demand. Following a series of ten consecutive rate hikes, the ECB decided to maintain its rates at its recent meeting, indicating a potential peak in the current hiking cycle.
Japan service activity posts slowest growth this year Japan's services activity expanded at the slowest pace this year in October, reinforcing concerns that the key sector propelling economic growth is continuing to soften. The final au Jibun Bank Service purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 51.6 in October from 53.8 in September, beset by weak demand. The index was slightly above the flash reading of 51.1 and remained over the 50.0 threshold separating expansion from contraction, according to the survey compiled by S&P Global Intelligence. Although consumption maintained its post-pandemic momentum, the rise in new orders was the weakest since January and new export orders slipped into the contraction for the first time in 14 months. Employment returned to growth, but retirements offset the overall pace of job creation, the survey found. Business expectations, while optimistic, dipped to a nine-month low.
Dollar maintains strength amid global economic uncertainties The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.22, -1.90 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.26,-6.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.57, -10.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.80. Moving in a range of 35.44-35.54 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.30-35.60 today. The US dollar is forecasted to maintain its strength through the end of 2023, despite traditional weakness in the November-December period. This strength is driven by US macro-outperformance and a hawkish Federal Reserve. High US rates, described as risk-negative events, are positively influencing the dollar while adversely affecting pro-cyclical currencies in Europe and Asia. Despite these trends, softer US macro data could potentially lead to a weaker dollar. However, significant shifts due to Chinese or European growth re-ratings are seen as unlikely.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
