- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.30-36.37 this morning supportive level at 36.30 resistance level at 36.50
· SET Index: 1,427.1 (-1.64%), 16 Oct 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,373.6 (+0.55%), 16 Oct 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.31 (+2.72 bps), 16 Oct 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.71 (+8.00 bps), 16 Oct 2023
- German wholesale prices fall for sixth month in a row
- Bank of England chief economist advocates for sustained high interest rates
- Oil prices extend losses amid Middle East uncertainty, Venezuela deal talk
- Dollar drifts as investors eye Powell speech, yen wobbles near intervention zone
German wholesale prices fall for sixth month in a row German wholesale prices fell for the sixth month in a row in September due to lower prices for mineral oil products, data from the federal statistics office showed, pointing to lower inflation in the coming months. September's wholesale prices fell by 4.1% compared with the same month last year, the biggest drop since May 2020. The 19.8% year-on-year fall in prices for mineral oil products, attributed to a base effect originating from high prices last year due to the war in Ukraine, was the primary driver of the overall decline, according the office. Easing price pressures in wholesale trade point to lower inflation rates in Germany in the coming months. Wholesalers are the link between manufacturers and consumers, and price reductions usually reach consumers with a delay.
Bank of England chief economist advocates for sustained high interest rates The chief economist for the Bank of England, Huw Pill, has underscored the necessity of maintaining high interest rates to counter inflation, despite the recent drop in living costs. Speaking at the Official Monetary and Financial Institutions Forum, Pill emphasized that persistent domestically driven inflation factors should guide the Bank's efforts to steer inflation back to its 2% target. Pill compared his preferred approach to interest rates to Table Mountain, indicating a lower peak but a longer duration of high rates than market expectations. This strategy represents a departure from the market's anticipation of a sharp peak followed by a rapid decline. Pill further acknowledged the uncertainties in forecasting, referring to what he termed as the "cloudy peak". He stated that future decisions regarding interest rates would be "finely balanced", suggesting possible additional hikes before the end of the year to achieve the 2% target.
Oil prices extend losses amid Middle East uncertainty, Venezuela deal talk Oil prices fell in Asian trade, extending recent losses after reports suggested that the US could potentially relax its sanctions on Venezuela’s oil industry. A lack of immediate escalation in the Israel-Hamas war also spurred bets that the conflict will not spill over into the broader Middle East region, as US officials said that Israel had agreed to provide aid to Gaza. While the move pushed up some hopes over a de-escalation in the Israel-Hamas war, it also dented bets over disruptions in Middle Eastern oil supply- a notion that had boosted oil prices since the onset of the conflict earlier in October. This, coupled with reports of potential sanctions relief for Venezuela, spurred steep losses in oil prices.
Dollar drifts as investors eye Powell speech, yen wobbles near intervention zone The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.31, +2.72 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.27,+3.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.71, +8.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.28. Moving in a range of 36.30-36.37 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.30-36.50 today. The US dollar started on the back foot as investors took stock of developments in the Middle East and braced for a slew of speeches by central bank officials this week headlined by Fed Chair Powell to gauge the monetary policy outlook. The yen was pinned close to the key 150 per dollar level, keeping traders on edge for any signs of intervention by the Japanese authorities. The yen last fetched 149.62 per dollar, having slipped to 150.17 on Oct. 3, the weakest in a year, before getting some relief in a brief rally. Japan's top financial diplomat Masato Kanda said the yen was still perceived as a safe haven asset like the dollar and the Swiss franc despite its recent weakness and was benefiting from demand due to the conflict in the Middle East.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
