- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.20-36.28 this morning supportive level at 36.15 resistance level at 36.35
· SET Index: 1,450.8 (-0.36%), 12 Oct 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,327.8 (+0.95%), 13 Oct 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.28 (-2.02 bps), 12 Oct 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.63 (-7.00 bps), 12 Oct 2023
- US consumer sentiment sours; dollar aiding inflation fight
- Persistent US services inflation dampens oil outlook
- Euro industrial output up in August, but sharply down year-on-year
- Dollar steady on underlying moderate PPI data, dovish Fed officials
US consumer sentiment sours; dollar aiding inflation fight US consumer sentiment deteriorated in October, with households expecting higher inflation over the next year, but labor market strength was likely to continue supporting consumer spending. The third straight monthly decline in sentiment reported by the University of Michigan on Friday was across nearly all demographic groups and likely reflected a rise in gasoline prices, which has since reversed. Consumers' 12-month inflation expectations increased to a five-month high. Sentiment was also likely hurt by violence in the Middle East, with the cutoff date for the survey Oct. 11, days after Palestinian Islamist group Hamas launched its attack on Israel. Other factors that could have weighed on morale include the continuing strike in the automobile industry and political dysfunction in Washington.
Persistent US services inflation dampens oil outlook US service-sector businesses returned to steady expansion in the third quarter after a brief and scarcely perceptible slowdown in the second quarter, according to business surveys. But the expansion is fueling faster price increases, putting the central bank’s disinflation plan in jeopardy and will likely lead to interest rates remaining higher for longer. In turn, higher rates will dampen interest-sensitive expenditure and likely lead to slower growth in oil consumption in 2024. Higher-for-longer rates will hit marginal borrowers in the United States, Europe and emerging markets especially hard. The Institute for Supply Management’s services activity index was at 53.6 (29th percentile for all months since 1997) in September up from a low of 50.3 (11th percentile) in May.
Euro industrial output up in August, but sharply down year-on-year Euro zone industrial production rose by more than expected in August, as factories made more consumer goods although overall output was down by more than 5% from a year earlier. The European Union's statistics office Eurostat said industrial production in the 20 countries sharing the euro rose by 0.6% month-on-month in August for a 5.1% year-on-year decline. Economists polled by Reuters had expected a 0.1% monthly increase and a 3.5% decline from a year earlier. The stronger than expected month-on-month numbers resulted from a 1.2% rebound in production of durable consumer goods, such as televisions or fridges, after a similar-sized decline in July. Output of non-durable consumer goods, such as food or clothing, rose by 0.5% for a second consecutive month.
Dollar steady on underlying moderate PPI data, dovish Fed officials The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.28, -2.02 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.28,+0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.63, -7.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.20. Moving in a range of 36.20-36.28 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.15-36.35 today. The US dollar touched a one-week high against a basket of currencies, extending its gains from the previous session when hot US consumer prices data reinforced expectations that the Federal Reserve may have to keep interest rates higher for longer. The consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.4% in September, keeping the annual rate at 3.7%, the same as in August, while economists polled by Reuters had forecast it would gain 0.3% on the month and 3.6% year-on-year. Data had shown U.S. producer prices increased more than expected in September amid higher costs for energy products and food. The dollar was also helped by safe-haven buying driven by the escalating Middle East conflict as Israel urged civilians to leave the northern Gaza Strip.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
