- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.71-36.75 this morning supportive level at 36.60 resistance level at 36.85
· SET Index: 1,471.4 (-0.73%), 29 Sep 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,288.1 (+0.32%), 29 Sep 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.18 (-7.76 bps), 29 Sep 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.59 (+0.00 bps), 29 Sep 2023
- US inflation outlook brightens as underlying price pressures subside
- Euro zone inflation falls to lowest in 2 years as economy slows
- China's factory activity recovery slows in September
- Dollar holds near 10-month high, yen under pressure amid strong U.S. economic data
US inflation outlook brightens as underlying price pressures subside Underlying U.S. inflation moderated in August, with the annual rise in prices excluding food and energy falling below 4.0% for the first time in more than two years, welcome news for the Federal Reserve as it ponders the monetary policy outlook. The personal consumption expenditures (PCE) price index, excluding the volatile food and energy components, edged up 0.1% last month. That was the smallest rise since November 2020 and followed a 0.2% advance in July. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the core PCE price index would climb 0.2%. In the 12 months through August, the core PCE price index increased 3.9%. Consumer spending, which accounts for more than two-thirds of U.S. economic activity, rose 0.4% last month after surging 0.9% in July. That partly reflected higher sales at services stations because of rising gasoline prices.
Euro zone inflation falls to lowest in 2 years as economy slows Inflation in the euro zone fell to its lowest level in two years in September, suggesting the European Central Bank's steady diet of interest rate hikes was succeeding in curbing runaway prices albeit at a growing cost for economic growth. Consumer prices in the 20 countries that share the euro rose by 4.3% in September, the slowest pace since October 2021, from 5.2% one month earlier, according to Eurostat's flash reading. Inflation excluding food, energy, alcohol and tobacco -- which is closely watched by the ECB as a better gauge of the underlying trend -- fell to 4.5% from 5.3%, the biggest drop since August 2020. These readings were likely to strengthen the ECB's conviction that it had raised interest rates far enough to bring down inflation to its 2% target by 2025.
China's factory activity recovery slows in September China's factory activity expanded at a slower pace in September, a private-sector survey showed, with sluggish external demand weighing on the outlook even as output increased. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) fell to 50.6 in September from 51.0 in the previous month, missing analysts' forecasts of 51.2. The 50 index point mark separates growth from contraction. The survey comes a day after China released its official PMI, which showed factory activity expanded for the first time in six months in September, adding to the run of indicators suggesting the economy has begun to bottom out. According to the Caixin PMI, factory output and new orders remained in expansionary territory in September, however, external demand remained weak with export orders index contracting for the third month.
Dollar holds near 10-month high, yen under pressure amid strong U.S. economic data The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.18, -7.76 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.27, -10.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.59, +0.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.54. Moving in a range of 36.71-36.75 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.60-36.85 today.
The dollar was on track to post its biggest quarterly gain in a year and gains for the 11th consecutive week as investors priced in the likelihood of a still solid economy and higher rates for longer. The greenback retraced most earlier losses against a basket of currencies to be only slightly lower on the day, following data that showed that U.S. consumer spending increased in August, but underlying inflation moderated, with the year-on-year rise in prices excluding food and energy slowing to less than 4.0%. The dollar index, which tracks the U.S. currency against six others, fell 0.05% to 106.09 on Friday and is track to end the quarter up 3.13% and post an 11th straight weekly rally - its longest such run in nine years.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
