- USDTHB: moving in the range 36.43-36.475 this morning supportive level at 36.30 resistance level at 36.70
· SET Index: 1,494.0 (-0.89%), 26 Sep 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,273.5 (-1.08%), 26 Sep 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.24 (+0.04 bps), 26 Sep 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.56 (+1.00 bps), 26 Sep 2023
- US consumer confidence dives to four-month low
- JPMorgan CEO warns of potential stagflation amidst US interest rate uncertainties
- China's industrial profits extend slump for Jan-Aug, but pace of downturn eases
- Dollar at 10-month high, yen weakens amid intervention watch
US consumer confidence dives to four-month low US consumer confidence dropped to a four-month low in September, weighed down by persistent worries about higher prices and rising fears of a recession, though households remained generally upbeat about the labor market. The second straight monthly decline in confidence reported by the Conference Board also reflected higher interest rates and concerns about the political environment. The nation faces a potentially disruptive shutdown of the federal government amid political wrangling. Confidence fell across all age groups and was most pronounced among consumers with annual incomes of $50,000 or more. The Conference Board said its consumer confidence index dropped to 103.0 this month, the lowest reading since May, from an upwardly revised 108.7 in August. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the index easing to 105.5 from the previously reported 106.1.
JPMorgan CEO warns of potential stagflation amidst US interest rate uncertainties In an interview with The Times of India, Jamie Dimon, CEO of JPMorgan Chase expressed concern over the potential impact of US interest rate hikes and the possibility of uncontrolled deficits. Amidst lower trading volumes and higher rates, he foresees "stress in the system" and advised the bank's clients to prepare for this scenario. Dimon referenced the Federal Reserve's benchmark rate, which has remained unchanged at 5.25%-5.5% since late July. He warned that a jump to a 7% interest rate could potentially trigger stagflation, a situation characterized by slow economic growth and high unemployment coupled with rising prices. The CEO acknowledged the Federal Reserve's anti-inflation efforts but expressed apprehensions about reliance on short-term fiscal and monetary stimuli, likening it to a "sugar high".
China's industrial profits extend slump for Jan-Aug, but pace of downturn eases Profits at China's industrial firms extended a double-digit drop for the first eight months, but the pace of declines eased slightly as a flurry of policy support steps has started to stabilize parts of the stuttering economy. The 11.7% year-on-year fall in profits narrowed from a 15.5% contraction for the first seven months, in line with expectations and potentially suggests a modest recovery is starting to take root for some businesses. That was backed up by August earnings posting a surprise surge of 17.2% from a year earlier, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. Profits were down 6.7% in July. As Beijing steps up policy support for its faltering economy after a brief post-COVID recovery, recent data have shown signs of stabilization with stronger-than-expected bank lending, industrial output and retail sales growth for August.
Dollar at 10-month high, yen weakens amid intervention watch The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.24, +0.04 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.25, -2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.56, +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.34. Moving in a range of 36.43-36.475 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.30-36.70 today. The dollar index hit a 10-month high while the Japanese yen came closer to the key 150 level, where Japanese officials are seen as potentially intervening to shore up the currency. Benchmark 10-year US government bond yields have jumped to 16-year highs this month as economic data remains robust despite higher interest rates. The Federal Reserve last Wednesday said that it may hike rates further and was likely to keep them elevated for a longer time as it battles to bring inflation closer to its 2% annual target. Sales of new US single-family homes fell more than expected in August as the rate on the popular 30-year fixed mortgage jumped above 7%, but US annual home price growth accelerated for a second straight month in July.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
