- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.905-35.96 this morning supportive level at 35.80 resistance level at 36.06
· SET Index: 1,522.6 (+0.55%), 22 Sep 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,320.1 (-1.88%), 22 Sep 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.20 (+5.47 bps), 22 Sep 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.44 (-5.00 bps), 22 Sep 2023
- U.S. business activity nears stand-still in September
- Shrinking German business activity points to Q3 contraction
- Japan business mood likely improved slightly in BOJ tankan
- Yen Drops and Dollar Rises as Central Banks Maintain Stimulus Measures
U.S. business activity nears stand-still in September U.S. business activity showed little change in September, with the vast services sector essentially idling at the slowest pace since February, and overall new order activity slipping to the lowest level this year. S&P Global said its flash U.S. Composite PMI index, which tracks the manufacturing and service sectors, dipped to a reading of 50.1 in September from a final reading for August of 50.2. The survey's composite new orders index slid to the lowest since December at 47.7 from 49.2 last month, marking the second straight month of declining new business. Input cost pressures ticked higher for a second month as well. The survey's services PMI edged down to an eight-month low of 50.2, fractionally lower than the reading of 50.6 expected by economists in a Reuters poll. S&P's manufacturing PMI ticked higher to 48.9 from 47.9 in August but was still the fifth straight month of contraction. Economists had forecast a manufacturing PMI of 48.0.
Shrinking German business activity points to Q3 contraction German business activity fell for the third consecutive month in September due to a sustained decline in demand for goods and services, pointing to a "deep" economic contraction in the quarter. The HCOB German Flash Composite Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to 46.2 in September from August's 44.6, but came in below the 47.2 forecasts by economists. The indicator was below the 50 level, pointing to a contraction in business activity. Business activity in the services sector contracted for the second month in a row, although the rate of contraction eased noticeably. The sector reading rose to 49.8 from 47.3 in August but remained below 50. The manufacturing PMI rose slightly to 39.8 from 39.1 in August but remained deep in contraction territory, the survey showed.
Japan business mood likely improved slightly in BOJ tankan A closely watched central bank survey is likely to show Japan's business confidence improved slightly in the three months to September, according to a Reuters poll, suggesting the economy is weathering headwinds from slowing global growth for now. The survey is also expected to show corporate spending appetite remains firm, according to the poll, which may heighten the case for the Bank of Japan (BOJ) to phase out its massive monetary stimulus. "Big manufacturers' sentiment likely improved, mainly among automakers. The service-sector mood is also expected to have brightened," thanks to the removal of pandemic curbs and the return of foreign tourists, said analysts at SMBC Nikko Securities.
Yen Drops and Dollar Rises as Central Banks Maintain Stimulus Measures
The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.20, +5.47 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.16, +5.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.44, -5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.17. Moving in a range of 35.905-35.96 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.80-36.06 today. The yen fell sharply against the dollar, trading at 148.31, following the Bank of Japan's decision to keep interest rates in negative territory. This move indicates that the bank is not in a hurry to wind down its large-scale stimulus program. Concurrently, the dollar rose by 0.2%, marking its 10th successive weekly gain, bolstered by a decline in the euro due to poor economic data from the Eurozone. The Federal Reserve (Fed) has maintained its steady approach to interest rates, although there is speculation about a possible rate increase this year, extending into 2024. According to the CME FedWatch tool, market sentiment indicates a 45% chance of another rate hike this year and a 44% likelihood of rate cuts by early 2024.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
