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Daily Market Insight: 22 September 2023

28 Sep 2023
  •  USDTHB: moving in the range 36.14-36.23 this morning supportive level at 36.00 resistance level at 36.30

·         SET Index: 1,514.3 (+0.42%), 21 Sep 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,330.0 (-1.65%), 21 Sep 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.14 (-3.23 bps), 21 Sep 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.49 (+14.00 bps), 21 Sep 2023

 

  • US weekly jobless claims drop to eight-month low; labor market remains tight
  • BOE keep the rate unchanged, pauses lengthy hiking cycle
  • China’s trade hit back, stopped exporting two minerals the world's chipmakers need
  • Asian currencies stumble amid hawkish Federal Reserve stance

 

US weekly jobless claims drop to eight-month low; labor market remains tight The report from the US Labor Department showed unemployment rolls in early September were the smallest since January. Initial claims for state unemployment benefits dropped 20,000 to a seasonally adjusted 201,000 for the week ended September 16, comparing to the Economists polled by Reuters which had forecast 225,000 claims for the latest week. Claims are in the lower end of their 194,000-265,000 range for this year. The four-week moving average of claims, a less volatile measure, fell by 7,750 to 217,000. Employment growth has been slowing and job openings falling. Labor market resilience is propping up the economy even as recession fears linger.

 

BoE keep the rate unchanged, pauses lengthy hiking cycle The Bank of England (BoE) kept interest rates on hold on Thursday (21 Sep), keeping its base rate at 5.25%, halting a run of 14th consecutive increases since December 2021.This decision had been seen as finely balanced, as data earlier in the week had showed a surprise drop in U.K. inflation in August, although it remained considerably above the bank's 2% medium-term target. The U.K. headline consumer price index sank to an 18-month low of 6.7% in August, while core inflation, which excludes volatile food and energy prices, fell sharply to 6.2% from 6.9% in July. Britain's inflation rate has fallen from a peak above 11% last October but even after the latest drop it remained among the highest in the industrialized world.

 

China’s trade stopped exporting two minerals the world's chipmakers need According to Chinese customs data, China’s exports of two rare minerals essential for manufacturing semiconductors fell to zero in August, a month after Beijing imposed curbs on sales overseas, citing national security. China produces about 80% of the world’s gallium and about 60% of germanium, according to the Critical Raw Materials Alliance. China has hit back at US-led restrictions on semiconductor sales by seeking to throttle exports of two metals used in chipmaking and communications equipment, as the geopolitical tit-for-tat between the two superpowers steps up. However, the impact of the collapse in exports is already being felt at home. Prices for gallium have fallen in China, as export controls caused inventories to pile up.

 

Asian currencies stumble amid hawkish Federal Reserve stance

The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.14, -3.23 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB336A) was 3.16, +0.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.49, +14.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 36.095 Moving in a range of 36.14-36.23 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.00-36.30 today. Meanwhile, the dollar index was trading above 105.5 level, highest since March 2023, reflecting an increase of 0.25 percent from its previous close. The claims data together with the Fed's hawkish stance pushed stocks on Wall street lower. The U.S. Treasury prices fell, with the yield on the benchmark 10-year bond rising to a nearly 16-year high. The dollar gained versus a basket of currencies. Asian currencies experienced a decline on Thursday, the Indian rupee, South Korean won, Taiwanese dollar, Philippines Peso, Thai Baht, China renminbi, and Singaporean dollar, and Japanese Yen all saw dips in their value.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC