- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.605-35.66 this morning supportive level at 35.50 resistance level at 35.75
· SET Index: 1,545.5 (+0.30%), 12 Sep 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,461.9 (+0.10%), 12 Sep 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.97 (+3.09 bps), 12 Sep 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.27 (-2.00 bps), 12 Sep 2023
- Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024
- UK wage growth points to another rate hike but jobless rate rises
- China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024
- Dollar retreats ahead of inflation data; Yen soars on Ueda's comments
Fed to leave rates unchanged on Sept. 20; cut unlikely before Q2 2024 The Federal Reserve will leave its benchmark overnight interest rate unchanged at the end of its Sept. 19-20 policy meeting and probably wait until the April-June period of 2024 or later before cutting it, according to economists in a Reuters poll. Fed Chair Jerome Powell underscored the "higher-for-longer" mantra for rates in a speech at the annual Jackson Hole central banking symposium in August and maintained another rate hike might still be needed to bring inflation down to the 2% target. But other members of the rate-setting Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC), including some of the more hawkish ones, have raised the possibility of holding off on another rate hike to allow more time to gauge the impact of the cumulative 525 basis points of tightening delivered by the Fed since March 2022. More than 95% of economists in the Sept. 7-12 Reuters poll predicted the U.S. central bank would hold the federal funds rate in the current 5.25%-5.50% range next week, in line with market expectations.
UK wage growth points to another rate hike but jobless rate rises Average weekly earnings growth in the three months to July rose to 8.5% in annual terms, up from 8.4% a month earlier and marking a new high, excluding distortions during the COVID-19 pandemic, in records dating back more than 20 years. Most investors think this will prompt the BoE to raise interest rates again on Sept. 22, to 5.5% from 5.25%, as it tries to tame the highest rate of inflation among major advanced economies. The unemployment rate rose, the number of people in work fell sharply and vacancies dipped below 1 million for the first time in two years. The unemployment rate rose to 4.3% in the three months to July from 4.2% a month earlier, its highest since the three months to the end of September 2021
China 2023 GDP growth forecast cut to 5.0%, 4.5% in 2024 China's economy will grow less than previously thought this year and next as a struggling property market dogs what was once the world's growth engine, according to a Reuters poll of economists who said the risks were skewed to further downgrades. The world's second-largest economy has been struggling after a brief post-COVID recovery, dragged by huge debt due to decades of infrastructure investment and a property downturn, posing risks not only to itself but also to the global economy. The Sept. 4-11 Reuters poll of 76 analysts, based in and outside mainland China, predicted the economy would grow 5.0% this year, lower than 5.5% forecast in a July survey. Forecasts ranged between 4.5% and 5.5%.
Dollar retreats ahead of inflation data; Yen soars on Ueda's comments The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.97, +3.09 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.94, +2.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.27, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.57. Moving in a range of 35.605-35.66 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.50-35.75 today. The U.S. dollar edged higher in early European trade, reversing some of the previous session’s sharp losses as traders revised their positions before data showing a potential rise in U.S. inflation. The Dollar Index traded 0.1% higher to 104.332, after falling 0.5% in the prior session, retreating from last week's six-month high of 105.15. The focus of the foreign exchange market this week is squarely on U.S. consumer inflation data due on Wednesday, which is expected to set the tone for a Federal Reserve meeting next week. The central bank is widely expected to keep rates on hold in September, but signs that inflation is proving sticky could prompt another hike before the end of the year.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
