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Daily Market Insight: 4 September 2023

4 Sep 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 35.08-35.14 this morning supportive level at 35.00 resistance level at 35.20

·         SET Index: 1,561.5 (-0.28%), 1 Sep 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,515.8 (+0.18%), 1 Sep 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.79 (+1.39 bps), 1 Sep 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.18 (+9.00 bps), 1 Sep 2023

 

  • US job growth picks up in August, unemployment rate climbs
  • Euro zone August factory activity showed signs of recovery
  • China's Aug factory activity picks up unexpectedly
  • Dollar gains after mixed jobs report

 

US job growth picks up in August, unemployment rate climbs The U.S. economy added more jobs than expected in August, but a rise in the unemployment rate and moderation in wage growth pointed to an easing in labor market conditions, fueling expectations the Federal Reserve could pause its rate hike cycle. Nonfarm payrolls increased by 187,000 jobs last month, the Labor Department said in its closely watched employment report on Friday, above the 170,000 estimate of economists polled by Reuters. Data for July was revised lower to show 157,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8% from the 3.5% in July. The headline beat, but the details disappointed. June’s and July’s numbers were revised down materially. June and July were probably close to cruising speed for the labor market. Wage growth has slowed to a pace consistent with stable inflation.

 

Euro zone August factory activity showed signs of recovery The downturn in euro zone manufacturing eased last month, suggesting the worst may be over for the bloc's beleaguered factories although demand weakened to its lowest in almost a year. Germany, Europe's biggest economy, remained a negative outlier among the big players, likely fuelling the discussion about it being the sick man of the region even though it is among one of the most diversified economies. HCOB's final euro zone manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI), compiled by S&P Global, rose to a three-month high of 43.5 in August from July's 42.7, albeit below a preliminary reading of 43.7. A reading below 50 marks a contraction in activity. An index measuring output, which feeds into a composite PMI due on Tuesday and seen as a good gauge of economic health, rose to 43.4 from 42.7.

 

China's Aug factory activity picks up unexpectedly China's factory activity surprisingly returned to expansion in August, a private-sector survey showed on Friday, with supply, domestic demand and employment improving, suggesting official efforts to revive growth might be having some effect. The Caixin/S&P Global manufacturing purchasing managers' index (PMI) rose to 51.0 in August from 49.2 in July, beating analysts' forecasts of 49.3 and marking the highest reading since February. The 50-point index mark separates growth from contraction. The data, a snapshot of the sprawling manufacturing economy, surprised to the upside but offered a mixed picture of the sector, a day after an official survey showed manufacturing activity contracted for a fifth straight month. The Caixin manufacturing PMI surveys around 650 private and state-owned manufacturers and focuses more on export-oriented firms in coastal regions, while the official PMI surveys 3,200 companies across China.


Dollar gains after mixed jobs report The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.79, +1.39 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.77, -1.00 bps. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.18, +9.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.05. Moving in a range of 35.08-35.14 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.00-35.20 today. The dollar gained against the euro and Japanese yen on Friday after the August jobs report showed a still strong labor market, despite some signs of deterioration. Employers added 187,000 jobs in August, above expectations for a 170,000 gain. But data for July was revised lower to show 157,000 jobs added instead of the previously reported 187,000. The unemployment rate rose to 3.8%, above the expected 3.5%. Average hourly earnings rose by 4.3% for the year, below expectations for a 4.4% gain. Private payrolls rose by 177,000 jobs last month, the ADP National Employment report showed

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC