- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.698-35.98 this morning supportive level at 35.90 resistance level at 35.20
· SET Index: 1,506.8 (+0.25%), 3 Jul 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,455.6 (+0.12%), 3 Jul 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.57 (-1.53 bps), 3 Jul 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.86 (+5.0 bps), 3 Jul 2023
- US Manufacturing Activity Shrinks by Most in Three Years
- UK year-ahead inflation expectations rise to 5%
- Improving Japan business mood signals steady economic recovery
- Dollar little changed after ISM data, yen below 145 threshold
US Manufacturing Activity Shrinks by Most in Three Years US factory activity contracted for an eighth month in June, slipping to the weakest level in more than three years as production, employment and input prices retreated. The Institute for Supply Management’s manufacturing gauge fell to 46, the weakest since May 2020, from 46.9 a month earlier, according to data released Monday. The current stretch of readings below 50, which indicates shrinking activity, is the longest since 2008-2009. The reading was also worse than all but one estimate in a Bloomberg survey of economists. The decline in the ISM production gauge, which also fell to the lowest level since May 2020, suggests demand for merchandise remains weak. The index of new orders contracted for a 10th straight month and order backlogs shrank, which may help explain a pullback in a measure of manufacturing employment.
UK year-ahead inflation expectations rise to 5% The British public’s expectations for inflation over the coming year rose in June but long-run expectations eased, according to a survey that will feed into the Bank of England’s next debate about how high it needs to raise interest rates. Public expectations for inflation in 12 months’ time increased to 5.0% in June from 4.7% in May, the monthly survey by U.S. bank Citi and polling firm YouGov showed. But expectations for inflation in five to 10 years’ time fell to 3.3% from 3.5%, the fourth consecutive monthly fall and the joint-lowest since April 2021. The BoE is watching measures of inflation expectations as it worries about price growth pressures in the economy. It stepped up its attempts to bring down inflation to its 2% target – from 8.7% in May – with a bigger-than-expected half-a-percentage-point interest rate increase last month.
Improving Japan business mood signals steady economic recovery Japanese business sentiment improved in the second quarter as raw material costs peaked and removal of pandemic curbs lifted consumption, a central bank survey showed, a sign the economy was on course for a steady recovery. Companies expect to increase capital expenditure and project inflation to stay above the Bank of Japan's 2% target five years ahead, the quarterly "tankan" showed on Monday, offering policymakers hope that conditions for phasing out their massive monetary stimulus may be gradually falling into place. The reading, which compared with a median market forecast for plus 3, was the highest since December 2022.
Dollar little changed after ISM data, yen below 145 threshold The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.57, -1.53 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.57, -1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.86, +5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.19 Moving in a range of 35.698-35.98 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.50-36.00 today. The dollar was little changed on Monday against a basket of major trading currencies and gained against a yen that's under intervention watch after the Japanese finance minister warned last week of excessive moves in the currency market. The dollar initially weakened on news of U.S. manufacturing slumping further in June to levels last seen when the economy was reeling from the initial wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. The Institute for Supply Management (ISM) said its manufacturing PMI dropped to 46.0 from 46.9 in May, the lowest reading since May 2020. It marked the eighth straight month that the PMI has been below the 50-threshold indicating contraction.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
