- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.56-35.65 this morning supportive level at 35.30 resistance level at 35.50
· SET Index: 1,466.9 (-0.76%), 28 Jun 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,376.9 (-0.04%), 28 Jun 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.58 (+1.15 bps), 28 Jun 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.71 (-6.0 bps), 28 Jun 2023
- US goods trade deficit narrows; retail inventories rise
- Australian retail sales beat expectations, hit 6-month high in May
- China's industrial profits tumble, deepening economic gloom
- Dollar strengthens after ECB conference, yen stays soft
US goods trade deficit narrows; retail inventories rise The U.S. trade deficit in goods narrowed in May as imports fell, but the improvement was probably insufficient to prevent trade from being a drag on economic growth in the second quarter. The hit from trade on gross domestic product was, however, likely to be offset by a rise in inventory investment, with the report from the Commerce Department on Wednesday also showing retail inventories increasing strongly last month. A raft of upbeat data this month, including nonfarm payrolls, retail sales, durable goods orders and housing starts, have suggested that the economy remained on a steady growth path in the second quarter, defying growing fears of a recession. The goods trade deficit decreased 6.1% to $91.1 billion last month, leaving the bulk of April’s surge intact.
Australian retail sales beat expectations, hit 6-month high in May Australian retail sales grew more than expected in May from the prior month, hitting a six-month high as consumer spending showed some resilience despite rising interest rates and a high cost of living. Retail sales grew 0.7% in May from the prior month, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed. The reading was higher than expectations for growth of 0.1%, and a flat reading in April. Retail sales also grew to A$35.52 billion (A$1= $0.6621)- their highest level since a record high hit in November 2022. The ABS attributed the rise in sales to a larger number of promotional activities and discounts through the month, which retailers took advantage of.
China's industrial profits tumble, deepening economic gloom Annual profits at China's industrial firms extended a double-digit decline in the first five months as softening demand squeezed margins, reinforcing hopes of more policy support to bolster a stuttering post-COVID economic recovery. The 18.8% year-on-year slump in profits came on top of the 20.6% contraction in January-April, and added to evidence of an economy that was losing steam on many fronts in May including retail sales, exports and property investment as youth jobless rate scaled a fresh high of 20.8%. Last month alone, industrial earnings contracted by 12.6% from a year earlier, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) released on Wednesday. Profits were down 18.2% in April.
Dollar strengthens after ECB conference, yen stays soft The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.58, +1.15 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.57, +1.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.71, -6.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.44 Moving in a range of 35.56-35.65 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.20-35.70 today. The dollar index rose on Wednesday following comments from a host of global central bank leaders, including Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell, who did not rule out the possibility of another rate hike by the Fed at its next meeting in July. Powell, speaking at a European Central Bank (ECB) conference along with Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey, ECB President Christine Lagarde and Bank of Japan Governor Kazuo Ueda, noted that two rate rises are likely this year, and did not rule out the possibility of a rate increase at its next policy meeting set for July 25-26. In addition, Powell also said he does not see inflation coming down to the Fed's 2% target until 2025. Expectations for a 25-basis point hike at the July meeting moved up to 81.8 from 76.9% a day earlier, according to CME's FedWatch Tool.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
