- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.28-35.375 this morning supportive level at 35.30 resistance level at 35.50
· SET Index: 1,478.1 (-0.49%), 27 Jun 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,378.4 (+1.14%), 27 Jun 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.57 (-0.14 bps), 27 Jun 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.77 (+5.0 bps), 26 Jun 2023
- US consumer confidence races to 17-month high; housing market regaining strength
- China’s deepening slide in industrial profits adds to economic gloom
- Thai exports drop less than expected in May, seen improving in second half
- Japanese intervention in focus as yen heads to 145 level
US consumer confidence races to 17-month high; housing market regaining strength U.S. consumer confidence increased in June to the highest level in nearly 1-1/2 years amid renewed labor market optimism, while business spending appeared to hold up in May, indicating the economy remained on solid footing despite fears of a recession. Hopes that the economy could avoid a downturn in the near-term were also bolstered by other reports on Tuesday signaling a housing market revival was likely underway, with new home sales racing to a 15-month high in May and monthly house prices rising again in April. The upbeat data, however, suggested the Federal Reserve will likely have to continue raising interest rates to slow demand in the overall economy. The U.S. central bank, which has raised its policy rate by 500 basis points since March 2022, signaled this month that two additional rate hikes were warranted this year.
China’s deepening slide in industrial profits adds to economic gloom Profits at China’s industrial firms tumbled 18.8% year-on-year in the first five months of 2023, data showed on Wednesday, as companies were hit hard by a squeeze in margins from softening demand amid a stumbling post-COVID economic recovery. The slide extended a 20.6% profit fall in the January-April period, according to data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) and reinforces market expectations of further policy support over coming months. In May alone, industrial earnings contracted by 12.6% from a year earlier, according to the NBS, which only occasionally publishes monthly figures. Profits were down 18.2% in April. The continued weakness in profits came on the back of a slowing economy that was losing steam in May on many fronts including retail sales, exports and property investment as youth jobless rate scaled a fresh high of 20.8%.
Thai exports drop less than expected in May, seen improving in second half S&P Global cut its forecast for China's economic growth this year, underscoring the uneven nature of the country's recovery from the pandemic which is spurring calls for further stimulus. S&P now expects China to log GDP growth of 5.2% in 2023, down from an earlier estimate of 5.5%. It was the first time a global credit ratings agency has cut China's forecast this year but follows lowered predictions by major investment banks including Goldman Sachs. The world's second-largest economy has slowed in recent months after coming back to life with the lifting of three years of restrictive zero-COVID policies. Forecasts for China GDP growth this year range between 4.4% and 6.2%.
Japanese intervention in focus as yen heads to 145 level The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.57, -0.14 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.565, +0.50 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.77, -5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.21 Moving in a range of 35.28-35.375 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.00-35.50 today. The Japanese yen steadied after a series of steep declines on Wednesday, as traders awaited fresh intervention in currency markets by the government to support the weakened currency. A mix of increased risk appetite and bets on more U.S. interest rate hikes battered the yen in recent weeks. This was exacerbated by a consistently dovish outlook from the Bank of Japan on maintaining its ultra-loose monetary policy in the near-term. The yen was trading around 143.88 to the dollar in morning trade on Wednesday- its weakest level since early-November. Recent weakness in the yen drew warnings from Japanese officials on potentially corrective measures.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
