- USDTHB: moving in the range 35.16-35.23 this morning supportive level at 35.00 resistance level at 35.30
· SET Index: 1,485.3 (-1.35%), 26 Jun 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,328.8 (-0.45%), 26 Jun 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.57 (-3.09 bps), 26 Jun 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.72 (-2.0 bps), 26 Jun 2023
- UK retail sales fall for second month in June
- Drop in German business morale points to longer recession
- S&P cuts China GDP forecast as calls for stimulus intensify
- Dollar edges off 15-month high vs rouble as Russia eyed
UK retail sales fall for second month in June British retail sales fell again in June as household finances were squeezed by the rising cost of living but stores expected sales volumes to stabilise next month, a survey showed on Monday. The Confederation of British Industry's (CBI) monthly distributive trades index fell to -9 from -10 in May. A measure of expected sales in the month ahead remained flat at zero. The CBI said retail sales volumes were average for the time of year at +1% in June compared with -18% in May, and were expected to remain broadly in line with seasonal norms in July at -2%. Britain's inflation rate came in higher-than-expected at 8.7% in May and April. With price growth far above the Bank of England's 2% target, analysts expect the central bank to continue raising Bank Rate having already raised it 13 times in a row since December 2021.
Drop in German business morale points to longer recession German business morale worsened for the second consecutive month in June, a survey showed on Monday, indicating that Europe’s largest economy faces an uphill battle to shake off recession. The Ifo institute said its business climate index fell to 88.5 this month from 91.5 in May. A Reuters poll of analysts had predicted a smaller drop to 90.7 in June. China’s weaker than hoped for economic performance since its reopening from tight COVID-19 lockdowns, a looming U.S. recession and ongoing monetary policy tightening seem to be weighing on German company sentiment, said Carsten Brzeski, global head of macro at ING.
S&P cuts China GDP forecast as calls for stimulus intensify S&P Global cut its forecast for China's economic growth this year, underscoring the uneven nature of the country's recovery from the pandemic which is spurring calls for further stimulus. S&P now expects China to log GDP growth of 5.2% in 2023, down from an earlier estimate of 5.5%. It was the first time a global credit ratings agency has cut China's forecast this year but follows lowered predictions by major investment banks including Goldman Sachs. The world's second-largest economy has slowed in recent months after coming back to life with the lifting of three years of restrictive zero-COVID policies. Forecasts for China GDP growth this year range between 4.4% and 6.2%.
Dollar edges off 15-month high vs rouble as Russia eyed The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.57, -3.09 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.60, -3.50 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.72, -2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 35.23 Moving in a range of 35.16-35.23 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 35.00-35.50 today. The dollar rose against the rouble on Monday, although it had pulled back from the 15-month high hit earlier in the session, while the Japanese yen gained modestly against the greenback following comments from the country's top currency diplomat. After last being seen on Saturday night, the leader of the Wagner mercenary group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose weekend mutiny appeared to pose a major threat to Russian President Vladimir Putin's 23-year-old rule, said he had never intended to overthrow the government. Prigozhin made no reference to his location or the deal that defused the mutiny. The Russian rouble weakened 0.90% versus the greenback at 84.40 per dollar after hitting its weakest level since March 2022.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
