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Daily Market Insight: 15 June 2023

15 Jun 2023
  •  USDTHB: moving in the range 34.72-34.87 this morning supportive level at 34.60 resistance level at 34.90

·         SET Index: 1,561.2 (-0.08%), 14 Jun 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,372.6 (+0.08%), 14 Jun 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.58 (+1.41 bps), 14 Jun 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.83 (-1.00 bps), 14 Jun 2023

 

  • Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees two small hikes by end of 2023
  • US producer inflation subsides as energy, food prices drop
  • Euro zone industrial production up more than expected in April
  • Dollar rallies in Asia after Fed signals rate hikes; yuan, kiwi slide

 

Fed leaves rates unchanged, sees two small hikes by end of 2023 The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday but signaled in new projections that borrowing costs may still need to rise by as much as half of a percentage point by the end of this year, as the U.S. central bank reacted to a stronger-than-expected economy and a slower decline in inflation. In a press conference at the end of the central bank's latest policy meeting, Fed Chair Jerome Powell described U.S. growth and the job market as holding up better than expected under the weight of the aggressive monetary policy tightening of the past year - likely lengthening the Fed's fight to lower inflation but also letting it proceed with less economic damage. The pause was out of caution, Powell said, to allow the Fed to gather more information before determining if rates do need to rise again, with the pace of its moves now less important than finding a proper endpoint that slows price increases while minimizing any rise in unemployment.

 

US producer inflation subsides as energy, food prices drop U.S. producer prices fell more than expected in May as the costs of energy goods and food declined, signaling that inflation pressures were abating throughout the economy and could eventually provide relief to consumers. The report from the Labor Department on Wednesday also showed the annual increase in producer inflation last month was the smallest in nearly 2-1/2 years. Underlying producer prices were muted. It followed data on Tuesday showing consumer prices edging up in May, with the year-on-year rise the smallest since March 2021. The Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged on Wednesday for the first time since March 2022 when the U.S. central bank embarked on its fastest monetary policy tightening campaign in more than 40 years.

 

Euro zone industrial production up more than expected in April Euro zone industrial production rebounded more than expected in April after a slump in March, as a surge in the output of capital goods such as buildings and equipment offset reduced production of consumer goods, data showed on Wednesday. Industrial production in the 20 countries sharing the euro rose 1.0% month-on-month in April for a 0.2% year-on-year rise, the European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said. Economists polled by Reuters had expected 0.8% monthly and annual increases. Eurostat said capital goods output jumped 14.7% month-on-month in April after a 15.2% plunge in March, more than compensating for a 2.6% monthly fall in the production of durable consumer goods and a 3.0% fall in non-durable goods.

 

Dollar rallies in Asia after Fed signals rate hikes; yuan, kiwi slide The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.58, +1.41 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.57, +2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.83, -1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.63 Moving in a range of 34.72-34.87 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. The U.S. dollar rallied in Asian trading on Thursday after the Federal Reserve signaled rate hikes later in the year, while China's and New Zealand's currencies fell on signs of weakness in those economies. The market's attention is now turning to other central bank decisions late this week. The dollar index rose 0.28% to 103.21, recovering from a four-week low of 102.66 on Wednesday after the Fed held interest rates steady but signaled that borrowing costs would increase by another 50 basis points (bps) by end-December. The Bank of Japan follows on Friday, when it is expected to maintain its ultra-dovish stance and yield curve control settings.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC