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Daily Market Insight: 7 June 2023

7 Jun 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.715-34.77 this morning supportive level at 34.60 resistance level at 34.80

·         SET Index: 1,528.5 (+0.00%), 6 Jun 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 4,283.9 (+0.24%), 6 Jun 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.51 (-0.19 bps), 6 Jun 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.70 (+1.00 bps), 6 Jun 2023

 

  • Euro zone retail sales flat in April, with weaker food, fuel sales
  • Australian economy barely grows in Q1 amid high rates, sticky inflation
  • Thai May headline inflation lowest in 21 months, seen falling further
  • Greenback gains, Aussie jumps on RBA rate hike

 

Euro zone retail sales flat in April, with weaker food, fuel sales Retail sales in the euro zone were unchanged in April, Eurostat said on Tuesday, as consumers spent less on food and car fuel, but increased purchases of other products, particularly online. Retail sales volumes in the 20 nations sharing the euro currency was at the same level as in March and was 2.6% lower year-on-year. That compared with average forecasts in a Reuters poll of economists of a 0.2% monthly rise and a 3.0% decline from a year earlier. Consumption has been weak all year as real incomes fall and households are now spending a larger part of their incomes on expensive energy and on credit and mortgage repayments, eroding demand for other goods.

 

Australian economy barely grows in Q1 amid high rates, sticky inflation Australia’s economy grew substantially less than expected in the first quarter of 2023, data showed on Wednesday, as pressure from rising interest rates and overheated inflation weighed heavily on spending and economic activity. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) rose 0.2% in the three months to March 31 from the prior quarter, data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) showed. The reading was much weaker than expectations for a rise of 0.8%, as well as the prior quarter’s reading of 0.5%. On an annualized basis, GDP grew 2.3%, missing estimates of 2.7% and slowing from the prior quarter’s print of 2.7%.

 

Thai May headline inflation lowest in 21 months, seen falling further Thailand’s May headline inflation rate dropped to its lowest in 21 months due to lower energy and food prices and a high base in 2022, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday, with consumer prices expected to fall further. The headline consumer price index (CPI) rose 0.53% in May from a year earlier, sharply below a rise of 1.70% forecast in a Reuters poll, and against April’s 2.67% year-on-year increase. It was first time in 21 months when headline inflation fell below the central bank’s target range of 1%-3%.  The core CPI index in May rose 1.55% from a year ago, below a forecast increase of 1.6%, and against April’s 1.66% rise.

 

Greenback gains, Aussie jumps on RBA rate hike The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.51, -0.19 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.51, +0.50 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.70, +1.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.76 Moving in a range of 34.715-34.77 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. The U.S. dollar gained against the euro and yen on Tuesday as investors focused on the likelihood that the Federal Reserve will continue hiking rates, while the Aussie jumped after the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) surprised with a rate increase. The Fed is seen as likely to pause in June as it evaluates the impact of higher rates on the economy. Fed funds futures traders see the Fed as likely to then resume rate increases, with a 65% chance of an at least 25 basis-point increase in July, according to the CME Group’s FedWatch Tool. Fed officials are in a blackout period ahead of the U.S. central bank's June 13-14 meeting and the next major economic release will be the consumer price report for May on June 13. The Aussie hit its highest since mid-May after the Reserve Bank of Australia raised interest rates by a quarter-point to an 11-year high of 4.1% and warned that further tightening may be required to ensure that inflation returns to target.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC