- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.40-34.55 this morning
· SET Index: 1,600.4 (+0.48%), 17 April 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,151.3 (+0.33%), 17 April 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.50 (+1.36 bps), 17 April 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.60 (+8.00 bps), 14 April 2023
- Weak retail sales, manufacturing output data point to slowing US economy
- Chinese economic recovery on track as Q1 GDP beats estimates
- Singapore March exports fall 8.3% y/y, drop less than forecast
- Dollar gains after strong New York factory survey
Weak retail sales, manufacturing output data point to slowing US economy U.S. retail sales fell more than expected in March as consumers cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items, suggesting that the economy was losing steam at the end of the first quarter because of higher interest rates. With the labor market cooling, retail sales are likely to remain weak. Ebbing demand for goods is undercutting production at factories, with other data on Friday showing manufacturing production declining last month. Retail sales dropped 1.0% last month, the Commerce Department said. Data for February was revised up to show retail sales falling 0.2% instead of 0.4% as previously reported. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast sales slipping 0.4%. They increased 2.9% year-on-year in March.
Chinese economic recovery on track as Q1 GDP beats estimates China’s economy grew more than expected in the first quarter of 2023, data showed on Tuesday, indicating that a recovery was largely on track after the country relaxed most anti-COVID restrictions at the beginning of the year. China’s first quarter GDP grew 4.5 on an annual basis in the first three months of 2023, more than expectations of 4% and 2022’s growth of 3%. GDP grew 2.2% from the prior quarter, in line with expectations. The reading comes as the relaxing of anti-COVID measures triggered a sharp rebound in business activity and spending, with pent-up demand greatly benefiting the service industry. A recovery was also helped by a slew of stimulus measures by the government, as it moves to fish the economy out from a pandemic-driven slump.
Singapore March exports fall 8.3% y/y, drop less than forecast Singapore’s March non-oil domestic exports (NODX) shrank 8.3% year-on-year, official data showed on Monday, though the drop was smaller than the previous month and less than forecast. Economists had expected a 20.8% contraction in a Reuters poll. Exports had contracted 15.8% in February. On a seasonally adjusted month-on-month basis, NODX increased 18.4%, Enterprise Singapore data showed, versus the prior month’s 8.2% decline. Economists had forecast 1.7% growth. The trade reliant city-state has now recorded six consecutive months of year-on-year contraction in the NODX, amid concerns over the economic outlook.
Dollar gains after strong New York factory survey The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.50, +1.36 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.50, +0.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.60, +8.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.34 Moving in a range of 34.40-34.55 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50 today. The dollar rose on Monday after New York state factory activity in April increased for the first time in five months, helping bolster expectations the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in May. Also bolstering the dollar was a report showing confidence among U.S. single-family homebuilders improved for a fourth straight month in April. The dollar index, a measures of the currency against six major peers, rose 0.413% after the Empire State Manufacturing index shot to 10.8 from -24.6 in March, far higher than expectations of -18 in a Reuters poll of 35 economists. The new orders index rose 47 points to 25.1, while the shipments index added 37 points to 23.9, substantial increases after they had declined in recent months, the New York Fed said.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
