- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.15-34.35 this morning
· SET Index: 1,600.4 (-0.55%), 3 April 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,124.5 (+0.37%), 3 April 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.46 (+5.14 bps), 3 April 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.43 (-5.00 bps), 3 April 2023
- ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 21-month low of 46.3 in March
- German manufacturing activity downturn deepened in March
- South Korea inflation softens to one-year low, outlook murky
- Dollar’s slide on rate-cut bets nearing limit as economic stress coming up short
ISM manufacturing PMI fell to 21-month low of 46.3 in March The U.S. manufacturing sector sank deeper into contraction in March, according to a closely watched business survey published on Monday. The Institute of Supply Management's manufacturing purchasing managers index fell to a 21-month low of 46.3 from 47.7 in February, well below consensus forecasts for a more modest drop to 47.5. An index level of 50 typically separates growth from contraction, and the ISM's index has now been below that level for five months, having fallen steadily over the last year. All three of the sub-indices in the report - for employment, new orders, and prices paid - also turned out below 50. Order backlogs and lead times also declined, painting a picture of a sector that is cooling rapidly under the pressure of repeated hikes in interest rates over the last 12 months by the Federal Reserve.
German manufacturing activity downturn deepened in March German manufacturing activity shrank in March at the fastest pace in almost three years, a survey showed on Monday. S&P Global’s final Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) for manufacturing, which accounts for about a fifth of Germany’s economy, fell to 44.7 in March from 46.3 in February. It marked its lowest level since May 2020, well below the 50 mark that separates contraction and expansion in manufacturing activity. The German manufacturing PMI has languished below the 50 mark since July. A Reuters poll of analysts had forecast a March reading of 44.4, in line with an earlier flash reading. The fall was driven mainly by the supplier delivery times sub-component, which is inverted in the calculation of the PMI and therefore has a negative directional influence as it rises.
South Korea inflation softens to one-year low, outlook murky South Korea's consumer inflation eased to a one-year low in March, led by weaker oil prices, but a range of issues including worries about global growth, monetary policy and decisions by major oil producers have clouded the outlook. The consumer price index was 4.2% higher in March than a year earlier, compared with gains of 4.8% in February and a 4.3% forecast in a Reuters survey. It was the slowest annual rise since March 2022. The index rose 0.2% on a monthly basis, after a 0.3% gain in the previous month, according to the Statistics Korea. It matched economists' expectation for a 0.2% rise. The softening comes as worries about the global banking sector and local economic prospects have prompted investors to increase their bets that the South Korean central bank's tightening cycle is over.
Dollar’s slide on rate-cut bets nearing limit as economic stress coming up short The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.46, +5.14 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.43, +5.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.00-2.50 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.43, -5.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.40 Moving in a range of 34.15-34.35 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50 today. The dollar bears have been beating the Federal Reserve rate-cut drum, dragging the greenback lower but that tune may soon be out of rhythm should the economic impact from the banking crisis remain modest. The U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback against a trade-weighted basket of six major currencies, fell by 0.45% to 101.72. At his monetary policy press conference in March, Fed chairman Jerome Powell said tighter lending conditions could be a substitute for rate hikes, though added that if the level of tightening was less than expected, then the central bank may continue to pursue a higher for longer rate regime.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
