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Daily Market Insight: 29 March 2023

29 Mar 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.15-34.30 this morning

·         SET Index: 1,606.9 (+0.85%), 28 March 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,971.3 (-0.16%), 28 March 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.33 (+4.52 bps), 28 March 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.55 (+2.00 bps), 28 March 2023

 

  • US goods trade deficit widens as exports decline
  • Food prices push UK shop price inflation to new high
  • Australia's inflation slows to 8-month low in Feb, adding to rate pause case
  • Oil edges up as Kurdish risks, U.S. inventory draw point to tight supply

 

US goods trade deficit widens as exports decline The U.S. trade deficit in goods widened modestly in February as exports declined, potentially setting up trade to be a small drag on economic growth in the first quarter. The trade deficit increased 0.6% to $91.6 billion, the Commerce Department said on Tuesday. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast the goods trade deficit would be little changed at $91.0 billion. Goods exports dropped 3.8% to $167.8 billion last month. The decline was led by an 11.9% plunge in shipments of motor vehicles and parts. Exports of consumer goods decreased 4.6%, while industrial supplies, which include petroleum, fell 4.2%. Exports of food and capital goods also fell. But exports of other goods rose 4.5%. Imports of goods slipped 2.3% to $259.5 billion. Imports of motor vehicles and parts tumbled 7.1%, while those of consumer goods dropped 5.6%. There were also decreases in imports of food and industrial supplies. But imports of capital goods as well as other goods increased.

 

Food prices push UK shop price inflation to new high Soaring food prices pushed annual inflation in British shops to its highest in at least 18 years in March, industry data showed on Tuesday. The British Retail Consortium said overall shop price inflation rose to 8.9% from 8.4% in February, the largest increase since the British Retail Consortium’s (BRC) records started in 2005. Prices in the BRC’s food category were 15% higher than a year ago, chiming with official inflation data last week that showed food and drink prices rose in February at the fastest annual rate since 1977. Sugar prices have been hit by falling production, rising energy prices and a pesticide ban in Britain to protect bees. British supermarkets have grappled with a shortage of key salad staples, particularly tomatoes, cucumbers and peppers after cold weather in growing areas.

 

Australia's inflation slows to 8-month low in Feb, adding to rate pause case Australian inflation slowed to an eight-month low in February, thanks in part to a sharp retreat in holiday travel and accommodation, adding to the case for a pause in interest rate hikes next month. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics on Wednesday showed its monthly consumer price index (CPI) rose 6.8% in the year to February, the slowest since June last year. That compared with 7.4% the previous month and market forecasts of 7.1%. The monthly CPI index rose 0.2% in February, from January. Prices excluding volatile fruit, vegetables and fuel rose 6.9% in the year to February, down from 7.5% in January. Investors reacted by pushing the local dollar 0.2%lower to $0.6694, while further trimming bets of a 25-basis point hike at April's policy meeting to a just 5% probability, compared with 15% before.

 

Oil edges up as Kurdish risks, U.S. inventory draw point to tight supply The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.33, +4.52 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.33, +2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.00-2.50 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.55, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.30 Moving in a range of 34.15-34.30 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50 today. Oil prices rose in early Asian trade on Wednesday, extending gains into a third straight session as disruptions in Kurdish crude shipments and a potentially large draw in U.S. inventories pointed to tighter supply in the near-term. Crude prices also took some support from improved sentiment towards the banking sector, as a string of regulatory assurances dampened fears of an imminent crisis. Data from the American Petroleum Institute (API) showed that U.S. oil inventories unexpectedly fell by nearly 6.1 million barrels in the week to March 24- their sharpest drop since mid-2022. The reading usually heralds a similar trend from government data due later in the day, which is expected to show a negligible rise in inventories for the week.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC