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Daily Market Insight: 28 March 2023

28 Mar 2023
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.25-34.45 this morning, supportive level at 34.20 resistance level at 34.35

·         SET Index: 1,593.4 (+0.10%), 27 March 2023

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,977.5 (+0.16%), 27 March 2023

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.29 (-2.61 bps), 27 March 2023

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.53 (+15.00 bps), 27 March 2023

 

  • UK retailers turn positive on sales hopes after bleak winter
  • Chinese industrial profits sink in sluggish start to the year
  • Australia retail sales growth slows to 0.2% in February
  • Dollar advances against Japanese yen as banking fears ease

 

UK retailers turn positive on sales hopes after bleak winter British retailers reported their first positive sales expectations in seven months, according to a survey published by the Confederation of British Industry on Monday, adding to other recent signs of recovery in the economy. The CBI's (CBI) expected sales balance for April increased to +9 from -18 in March. Apart from September's reading of +31, the gauge of sales expectations has been negative in every month since May of last year. Sales in March were reported roughly flat at +1, little changed from February's reading of +2. A Reuters poll of economists had pointed to a reading of -6. Consumers have been hit hard by an inflation rate that remains about 10%, plus rising interest rates and the prospect of higher taxes. "It's encouraging that activity in the retail sector showed signs of stabilizing after a challenging winter," CBI Principal Economist Martin Sartorius said.

 

Chinese industrial profits sink in sluggish start to the year Chinese industrial profits fell sharply in the first two months of 2023, data showed on Monday, as a recovery in manufacturing activity was largely offset by softening demand in the face of slowing global growth and lingering aftereffects of the COVID pandemic. Industrial profits dropped 22.9% in the year to February, data from the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) showed. This compared with a 4% drop in industrial profits through 2022. While manufacturing output rebounded with the lifting of anti-COVID measures earlier this year, demand did not see a corresponding recovery. This largely impacted the margins of local manufacturers. Particularly revenue growth. This was also indicated in weak producer price inflation, which unexpectedly shrank further in February.

 

Australia retail sales growth slows to 0.2% in February Australian retail sales eked out a meagre gain in February after wild swings around year-end holidays, indicating shoppers are reining in spending in the face of higher costs of living and rising interest rates. Data from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) on Tuesday showed retail sales rose 0.2% in February from January, when they picked up a revised 1.8%. Sales of A$35.14 billion ($23.42 billion) were 6.4% higher than a year earlier. The result was just a touch above median forecasts of a rise of 0.1%. Estimates from analysts ranged from minus 1.2% to plus 1.3%.

 

Dollar advances against Japanese yen as banking fears ease The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.29, -2.61 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.31, +2.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.00-2.50 Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.53, +15.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.31 Moving in a range of 34.25-34.45 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.00-34.50 today. The dollar rose to a five-day high against the Japanese yen on Monday as authorities' efforts to rein in worries over the global banking system helped soothe investor nerves. The U.S. currency, however, clung to a narrow range against most major currencies as investors appeared hesitant to place big wagers in either direction as they sought clarity on the fallout from the recent collapse of two U.S. lenders and the rescue of Credit Suisse. Global banking stocks, which have been battered this month following the sudden collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank (NASDAQ:SBNY), received some respite on Monday after the Federal Deposit Insurance Corporation said First Citizens BancShares Inc would acquire all of Silicon Valley Bank's deposits and loans from the regulator.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC