- USDTHB: moving in the range 33.75-33.86 this morning, supportive level at 33.70 resistance level at 33.90
· SET Index: 1,664.6 (-0.28%), 10 Feb 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 4,090.5 (+0.22%), 10 Feb 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.52 (+2.65 bps), 10 Feb 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.74 (+7.00 bps), 10 Feb 2023
- U.S. consumer sentiment improves; inflation expectations rise
- UK economy shows zero Q4 growth, narrowly avoids recession
- Japan's wholesale inflation stays elevated, keeps BOJ under pressure
- Dollar rises as investors look to next week's inflation report; yen gains
U.S. consumer sentiment improves; inflation expectations rise U.S. consumer sentiment improved to a 13-month high in February, but households expected higher inflation to persist over the next 12 months, a survey showed on Friday. The University of Michigan's preliminary February reading on the overall index of consumer sentiment came in at 66.4, the highest reading since January 2022, up from 64.9 in the prior month. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast a preliminary reading of 65.0. The sentiment index has rebounded from a low of 50.0 in June last year. The survey's measure of current economic conditions increased to a reading of 72.6 this month from 68.4 in January. Its gauge of consumer expectations dipped to 62.3 from a reading of 62.7 last month, likely reflecting lingering recession fears. The improvement in sentiment was probably driven by a rally on the stock market and persistent labor market strength.
UK economy shows zero Q4 growth, narrowly avoids recession Britain’s economy showed zero growth in the final three months of 2022 – enough for it to avoid entering a recession for now – but faces tough prospects in 2023 as households continue to wrestle with double-digit inflation. Monthly gross domestic product data for December – when there were widespread strikes in the public sector, rail and postal services – showed a 0.5% contraction, the Office for National Statistics said, larger than the 0.3% forecast. Even so, Friday’s figures will offer some relief to Prime Minister Rishi Sunak and his finance minister Jeremy Hunt, as they seek measures to spur a rebound in their upcoming annual budget on March 15. Output fell 0.2% in the three months to the end of September – when many businesses shut briefly to mark Queen Elizabeth’s funeral – and another consecutive fall in output in the fourth quarter would have met Europe’s usual definition of recession.
Japan's wholesale inflation stays elevated, keeps BOJ under pressure Japan's wholesale prices in January rose 9.5% from a year earlier, data showed on Friday, adding to growing signs of inflationary strains that could keep the central bank under pressure to phase out its massive stimulus program. While the pace of increase slowed from the previous month's 10.5% rise, the data highlighted the cost-push pressure companies were facing for products ranging from food, steel and chemical goods. The increase in the corporate goods price index (CGPI), which measures the price companies charge each other for their goods and services, largely met a median market forecast for a 9.6% gain. The index, at 119.8, matched a record high hit in December, Bank of Japan (BOJ) data showed. The data suggests that Japan's core consumer inflation, which hit a 41-year high of 4.0% in December, will likely remain well above the central bank's 2% target in coming months.
Dollar rises as investors look to next week's inflation report; yen gains The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.52, +2.65 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.52, +4.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.74, +7.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.67 Moving in a range of 33.75-33.85 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 33.50-34.00 today. The dollar gained on Friday as investors grew concerned about a U.S. inflation report next week that could show a number that is higher than markets forecast amid data showing expectations for a continued rise in prices over the next year. The yen also rose across the board with Kazuo Ueda reportedly set to become the next Bank of Japan (BOJ) governor but pared gains after he said the central bank's monetary policy was appropriate. The Japanese unit was on track for its first weekly gain versus the dollar after posting losses for three straight weeks. As the data continued to show positive U.S. momentum, the dollar was on pace for its second weekly rise.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
