- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.98-33.11 this morning, supportive level at 32.90 resistance level at 33.20
· SET Index: 1,681.0 (-0.23%), 17 Jan 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 3,991.0 (-0.20%), 17 Jan 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.46 (+4.86 bps), 17 Jan 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.53 (+4.00 bps), 13 Jan 2023
- NY Empire State manufacturing index plunges in January to -32.9
- German economy expected to contract slightly in 2023
- Canada’s inflation eases in December ahead of another likely rate hike
- Oil prices move little as markets weigh China recovery, recession fears
NY Empire State manufacturing index plunges in January to -32.9 A key gauge of U.S. manufacturing sent an alarm signal on Tuesday, highlighting a growing divergence between a relatively strong labor market and a stuttering real economy. The Empire State manufacturing index, compiled by the New York Federal Reserve, plunged from -11.2 in December to -32.9, its lowest since the early days of the pandemic, as companies reported sharp drops in both new orders and shipments. Analysts had expected a modest recovery to -8.7 ahead of time. The Empire State survey doesn't reflect nationwide activity quite as accurately as the more representative Philadelphia Fed survey, which has suggested a more constant but less pronounced contraction over the last four months. Both survey represent a stark reality check to those who have interpreted a series of strong labor market reports as evidence that the U.S. can avoid a recession this year.
German economy expected to contract slightly in 2023 The German economy is expected to contract by 0.3% this year and the energy crisis triggered by Russia's invasion of Ukraine will continue to weigh on industry in Europe's largest economy, Germany' BDI industry association said on Tuesday, Mild recessionary trends are expected to predominate at the start of the year, but things should start to improve in the spring, BDI President Siegfried Russwurm said. German economic output stagnated in the final quarter of 2022 and grew 1.9% over the full year, the German statistics office said on Friday, adding to signs that the country may dodge a recession. The BDI foresees exports of goods and services increasing by 1.0% in real terms this year, lagging behind global trade, for which a 1.5% rise is forecast, Russwurm added.
Canada’s inflation eases in December ahead of another likely rate hike Canada’s annual inflation rate eased more than expected in December as gas prices came down, but core measures remained little changed from the previous month, Statistics Canada said on Tuesday, making another interest rate hike this month likely. Inflation slowed to 6.3% in December from 6.8% in November, a notch lower than the 6.4% median forecast of analysts. Prices fell 0.6% from the previous month, again showing price pressures easing more than analysts’ forecast for a 0.5% decline. Consumers paid 13.1% less at the pump in December compared with November, the largest monthly decline in almost three years, Statscan said. The average of two of the central bank’s core measures of underlying inflation, CPI-median and CPI-trim, came in at 5.2% compared with 5.3% in November.
Oil prices move little as markets weigh China recovery, recession fears The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.46, +4.86 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.45, +1.5 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.53, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.09 Moving in a range of 32.98-33.11 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.90-33.20 today. Oil prices kept to a tight range on Wednesday as markets weighed increasing signs of a recovery in Chinese demand against fears of a global economic slowdown in 2023, with the IEA’s monthly report now coming into focus. The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) said in a monthly report on Tuesday that a Chinese reopening will spur a strong rebound in crude demand this year. But the cartel also left its global oil demand forecast unchanged at a rise of 2.22 million barrels per day. Focus is now squarely on a monthly report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) due later in the day. Crude markets closed higher on Tuesday after the OPEC report, also taking support from data that showed the Chinese economy grew more than expected in the fourth quarter of 2022.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
