- USDTHB: moving in the range 32.815-32.90 this morning, supportive level at 32.70 resistance level at 32.90
· SET Index: 1,681.7 (+0.00%), 13 Jan 2023
· S&P 500 Index: 3,999.1 (+0.40%), 13 Jan 2023
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.39 (-3.79 bps), 13 Jan 2023
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.49 (+6.00 bps), 13 Jan 2023
- U.S. near-term consumer inflation expectations lowest in nearly two years
- Japan PPI inflation rises more than expected in Dec to 42-year high
- China trade balance up more than expected in Dec amid easing COVID curbs
- Oil prices slip as markets await demand forecasts, economic clarity
U.S. near-term consumer inflation expectations lowest in nearly two years U.S. consumers are becoming more confident that price pressures will ease considerably over the next 12 months, with a survey on Friday showing their one-year inflation expectations falling in January to the lowest level since the spring of 2021. But the road to low inflation will be bumpy as other data on Friday showed import prices unexpectedly increasing in December after five straight monthly decreases, boosted by higher costs for natural gas and food. Overall inflation is retreating as the Federal Reserve's aggressive interest rate increases cool demand, and bottlenecks in the supply chain ease. Year-ahead inflation expectations dropped to a preliminary reading of 4.0% this month from 4.4% in December, the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers showed. The fourth straight monthly decline pushed inflation expectations to the lowest reading since April 2021.
Japan PPI inflation rises more than expected in Dec to 42-year high Japanese factory gate inflation grew more than expected in December, data showed on Monday, sticking to its highest level in 42 years as local producers continued to grapple with high import costs and a weakened yen. The producer price index (PPI) grew at an annualized rate of 10.2% in December, more than expectations for growth of 9.5% and last month’s reading of 9.7%, data from the Bank of Japan showed. On a monthly basis, PPI inflation grew 0.5% in December, more than expectations for a rise of 0.3% but slightly lower than last month’s reading of 0.8%. But November’s reading was also revised higher to 0.8% from 0.6%. The index was now back at peaks seen during 2022, which were in turn at their highest levels since 1981. The resurgence in PPI inflation was driven chiefly by renewed volatility in global commodity prices, which advanced in December on expectations of a demand recovery in major importer China.
China trade balance up more than expected in Dec amid easing COVID curbs China’s trade surplus grew more than expected in December, data showed on Friday, as both exports and imports shrank less than expected as easing anti-COVID restrictions aided economic activity. China’s trade balance grew to a surplus of $78 billion in December, data from the Customs Administration showed. The figure was higher than expectations of $76.2B, as well as last month’s reading of $69.84B. Exports shrank 9.9% from last year, slightly less than expectations for a drop of 10%, but more than November’s decline of 8.7%. The reading came as Chinese producers still struggled with COVID-related disruptions in the country, as well as sluggish global demand for Chinese goods.
Oil prices slip as markets await demand forecasts, economic clarity The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.39, -3.79 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.55, -8.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.30-2.80. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.49, +6.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 33.14 Moving in a range of 32.815-32.90 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 32.80-33.30 today. Oil prices fell on Monday after a sharp rally last week, as traders turned cautious and locked in some profits ahead of demand forecasts from the OPEC and the IEA, as well as a barrage of economic data due this week. Crude prices rallied over 8% last week on the prospect of a rebound in Chinese demand, after the country reopened its borders and essentially confirmed a pivot away from its strict zero-COVID policy. Weakness in the U.S. dollar, amid signs of slowing inflation in the country, also benefited oil prices. Focus is now squarely on a monthly report from the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), due on Tuesday. Markets are waiting to see whether the cartel will change its forecasts for global demand in the face of a Chinese economic recovery.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
