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Daily Market Insight: 29 December 2022

29 Dec 2022
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 34.66-34.74 this morning, supportive level at 34.50 resistance level at 34.75

·         SET Index: 1,647.3 (+0.25%), 28 Dec 2022

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,783.2 (-1.21%), 28 Dec 2022

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.68 (+3.07

bps), 28 Dec 2022

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 3.88 (+4.0 bps), 28 Dec 2022

 

  • U.S. pending home sales sag more than expected in November
  • South Korea Dec exports to fall for third month as China demand still weak
  • Vietnam 2022 GDP growth quickens to 8.02%, fastest since 1997
  • Oil prices ease, China COVID spike hurts demand outlook

 

U.S. pending home sales sag more than expected in November Contracts to buy U.S. previously owned homes fell far more than expected in November, diving for a sixth straight month in the latest indication of the hefty toll the Federal Reserve's interest rate hikes are taking on the housing market as the central bank seeks to curb inflation. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) said on Wednesday its Pending Home Sales Index, based on signed contracts, fell 4% to 73.9 last month from October's downwardly revised 77.0. November's was the lowest reading - aside from the short-lived drop in the early months of the pandemic - since NAR launched the index in 2001. Economists polled by Reuters had forecast contracts, which become sales after a month or two, would fall 0.8%. Pending home sales dropped 37.8% in November on a year-on-year basis.

 

South Korea Dec exports to fall for third month as China demand still weak South Korea’s exports likely extended their falling streak to a third straight month in December, a Reuters poll showed on Wednesday, with demand from China yet to recover from loosening COVID-19 restrictions. The country’s outbound shipments were projected to have fallen 10.1% in December from the same month a year ago, according to the median forecast of 12 economists. That would be the third straight month of year-on-year declines, after a 14.0% loss in November, which was the biggest in 2-1/2 years, and 5.8% in October. China has eased some of its most stringent restrictions to fight COVID-19 since last month. During the first 20 days of December, South Korea’s exports shrank 8.8% from the same period a year ago. Those to China dropped 25.5%, outweighing gains in U.S. and EU-bound shipments, in likely the seventh consecutive falling month.

 

Vietnam 2022 GDP growth quickens to 8.02%, fastest since 1997 Vietnam's gross domestic product grew 8.02% in 2022, the fastest pace annually since 1997, backed by strong domestic retail sales and exports. The reading is higher than an official growth target of 6.0%-6.5% and growth last year of just 2.58%, when COVID-19 lockdowns left a dent on the economy and impacted factory activity. The high annual growth number comes despite fears of a global recession and its impact on demand for exports from Vietnam, a key manufacturer of goods like textiles, footwear and electronics for big-name international brands. GDP growth in the fourth quarter was 5.92%, slowing from a growth of 13.71% in the third quarter, the GSO said. Exports in 2022 were up 10.6% to $371.85 billion, while retail sales rose 19.8%, the GSO said. Consumer prices in December rose 4.55% from a year earlier.

 

Oil prices ease, China COVID spike hurts demand outlook The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.68, +3.07 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.33, +2.34 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.88, +4.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.67 Moving in a range of 34.66-34.74 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. Oil prices ticked down on Thursday as surging COVID-19 cases in China dimmed hopes of a recovery in fuel demand in the world's second-biggest oil consumer. The scale of the latest outbreak and doubts over official data prompted some countries to enact new travel rules on Chinese visitors, even as China began dismantling the world's strictest COVID regime of lockdowns and testing. Brent futures for February delivery fell 42 cents, or 0.5%, to $82.84 a barrel, by 0123 GMT, while U.S. crude fell 50 cents, or 0.6%, to $78.46 per barrel. Oil markets were also buffeted by expectations of another U.S. interest rate hike in the United States, as Federal Reserve tries to limit price rises in a tight labour market.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC