- USDTHB: moving in the range 34.60-34.66 this morning, supportive level at 34.50 resistance level at 34.75
· SET Index: 1,643.2 (+1.00%), 27 Dec 2022
· S&P 500 Index: 3,829.3 (-0.41%), 27 Dec 2022
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 2.65 (-0.28
bps), 27 Dec 2022
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.84 (+9.0 bps), 27 Dec 2022
- German businesses expect only mild recession as disruptions ease
- China’s industrial profits slump on COVID fallout, next year seen improving
- Thai Nov exports drop 6.0% y/y, slightly worse than forecast
- Dollar edges to one-week high vs yen amid spike in Treasury yields
German businesses expect only mild recession as disruptions ease German companies expect only a mild recession next year despite headwinds from the energy crisis, raw material shortages and a tepid global economy, a survey of major associations published by Reuters on Tuesday showed. There have been growing signs that the German economy could stave off the worst of an economic downturn triggered by a plunge in energy supply from Russia after the Ukraine invasion. Inflation slowed slightly to 11.3% in November from a high of 11.6% the month prior as energy prices eased. The German government has predicted the economy will grow by 1.4% this year and contract by 0.4% next year. The Association of German Chambers of Industry and Commerce (DIHK) said there were many indications that supply chain disruptions were gradually easing.
China’s industrial profits slump on COVID fallout, next year seen improving Profits at China’s industrial firms contracted further in the January-November period as strict COVID 19-related curbs disrupted factory activity and supply chains, but analysts foresaw brighter long-term economic prospects after a U-turn in COVID policy. Industrial profits fell 3.6% in January-November from a year earlier to 7.7 trillion yuan ($1.11 trillion), according to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics (NBS) on Tuesday. That compares with a 3.0% drop for January-October. Analysts have noted a squeeze in profits both from anti-virus curbs in big manufacturing hubs such as Guangzhou and Zhengzhou, and from the persistent weight of a protracted property crisis and slowing exports. But they expect a robust recovery could kick in next year as the economy reopens, although for the near term there was likely to be a further slump as the removal of restrictions brings a sharp rise in infections.
Thai Nov exports drop 6.0% y/y, slightly worse than forecast Thailand's exports dropped for a second straight month in November and by more than expected, due to a global slowdown and China's lockdown measures, the commerce ministry said on Tuesday. Exports, a key driver of Thai growth, declined 6.0% in November from a year earlier, compared with a forecast fall of 5.2% year on year in a Reuters poll. That came after October's 4.4% drop. Exports of agricultural and agro-industrial products dropped by 2% in November from a year earlier, while shipments of industrial products declined 5.1%, the ministry said in a statement. Among major markets in November, shipments to the United States rose 1.2% from a year earlier while those to Southeast Asia dropped 9.5%. Exports to China declined 9.9% from a year earlier.
Dollar edges to one-week high vs yen amid spike in Treasury yields The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 2.65, -0.28 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.33, +2.34 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.20-2.70. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.84, +9.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 34.64 Moving in a range of 34.60-34.66 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 34.50-35.00 today. The dollar edged higher against its major peers on Wednesday, reaching a more than one-week top versus the yen, buoyed by higher Treasury yields as traders puzzled over the outlook for policy at the world's biggest central banks. The U.S. currency ticked 0.13% higher to 133.685 yen in Asian trading, and earlier touched 133.95 for the first time since Dec. 20, when the Bank of Japan sent the pair spiraling lower with an unexpected loosening of the 10-year Japanese government bond yield policy band. The greenback dropped as low as 130.58 yen that day for the first time since early August as traders speculated about an eventual end of BOJ stimulus. A summary of opinions from the meeting, released Wednesday, showed policymakers discussed growing prospects the country could see higher wage growth and sustained inflation next year.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
