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Daily Market Insight: 9 November 2022

9 Nov 2022
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 36.88-37.00 this morning, supportive level at 36.75 resistance level at 37.05

·         SET Index: 1,632.6 (+0.56%), 8 Nov 2022

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,828.1 (+0.56%), 8 Nov 2022

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.13 (+0.79 bps), 8 Nov 2022

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.14 (-8.0 bps), 8 Nov 2022

 

  • US small business sentiment falls in October
  • Euro zone Sept retail sales up m/m, Aug revised upwards
  • Japan's H1 current account surplus falls the most yr-on-yr since 2008
  • Gold rallies above $1,700 as dollar weakens amid election jitters

 

US small business sentiment falls in October US small-business confidence edged down in October as stubbornly high inflation weighed on sentiment and more owners forecast a deteriorating outlook for the economy, a survey showed on Tuesday. The National Federation of Independent Business (NFIB) said its Small Business Optimism Index fell 0.8 point to 91.3 last month to the lowest level since July. The retreat came after two straight months of gains, which followed a deterioration over the first half of this year. Thirty-three percent of owners reported that inflation was the single most important issue in operating their business, up three points from September and four points below July's reading, which was the highest share since the fourth quarter of 1979.

 

Euro zone Sept retail sales up m/m, Aug revised upwards Euro zone retail sales rose as expected month-on-month in September but fell less than expected year-on-year after a strong upward revision for August, data showed on Tuesday, underlining sustained consumer demand in the third quarter. The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said retail sales in the 19 countries sharing the euro rose an expected 0.4% month-on-month for a 0.6% year-on-year fall, which was much smaller than the 1.3% expected by economists in a Reuters poll. Eurostat also revised upwards retail sales for August to 0.0% month-on-month from the previously reported -0.3% and to -1.4% from -2.0% in annual terms.

 

Japan's H1 current account surplus falls the most yr-on-yr since 2008 Japan's current account suffered the biggest year-on-year decline in the second half of this fiscal year since the 2008 global financial crisis, amid a weak yen and a persistent trade deficit. The annual decline brought the current account surplus to a level unseen since 2014, the Ministry of Finance data showed on Wednesday. For the first half of this fiscal year, the current account surplus fell by 6.8627 trillion yen ($47.1 billion) from a year earlier to 4.8458 trillion yen, the biggest decline since the latter half of fiscal 2008, the data showed. Japan's current account surplus stood at 909.3 billion yen in September, compared with economists' median forecast for a surplus of 234.5 billion yen in a Reuters poll.

 

Gold rallies above $1,700 as dollar weakens amid election jitters The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.13, +0.79 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.01, +1.0 bps. LB31DA could be between 3.00-3.10. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.14, -8.0 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 37.34 Moving in a range of 36.88-37.00 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 36.90-37.50 today. Gold prices jumped to a one-month high on Wednesday, benefiting from resurgent safe haven demand and a weakening dollar as investors awaited the results of the U.S. midterm elections, with broader metal prices also gaining. Spot gold traded above $1,700 for the first time since early-October, rising to $1,712.62 an ounce, while gold futures edged up to $1,715.90 an ounce. Both instruments jumped over 2% in late trade on Tuesday. Weakness in the dollar, which slipped to an over 1-½ month low this week, greatly aided a rally in metal markets. The dollar index traded down 0.5% at 109.61 early-Wednesday. U.S. Treasury yields also tumbled over 2%.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC