- USDTHB: moving in the range 38.02-38.10 this morning, supportive level at 37.80 resistance level at 38.20
· SET Index: 1,571.4 (-0.68%), 17 Oct 2022
· S&P 500 Index: 3,678.0 (+2.61%), 17 Oct 2022
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.24 (+4.53 bps), 17 Oct 2022
· US 10-year treasury yield: 4.02 (+2.00 bps), 17 Oct 2022
- IMF cuts global GDP forecast, warns worst to come
- U.S. retail sales unexpectedly flat in September
- German inflation rate reaching the new high since reunification
- Asian markets mixed as keeping eyes on China meeting
IMF cuts global GDP forecast, warns worst to come The IMF cut its forecast for global growth next year to 2.7%yoy in this October report, from 2.9%yoy seen in July and 3.8%yoy in January, adding that it sees a 25% probability that growth will slow to less than 2%. The IMF also anticipates that global inflation will peak in late 2022, increasing from 4.7%yoy in 2021 to 8.8%yoy, and that it will remain elevated for longer than previously expected. In its report, three major events currently hindering growth; Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, the cost-of-living crisis and China’s economic slowdown. More importantly, the risk of policy miscalculation has risen sharply as growth remains fragile and markets show signs of stress, about one third of the global economy risks contracting next year, with the U.S., European Union and China all continuing to stall.
U.S. retail sales unexpectedly flat in September The U.S. Commerce Department reported that U.S. retail sale was stood at 8.2%yoy in September, easing from an upwardly revised 9.4%yoy in the previous month. It was the smallest increase in retail trade since April, as high inflation and rising borrowing costs hit demand. Households cut back on purchases of motor vehicles and other big-ticket items like electronics and appliances amid stubbornly high inflation and rapidly rising interest rates. Retail sales also are slowing as spending shifts back to services. Sales at auto dealerships slipped 0.4% last month, while receipts at service stations dropped 1.4%. Furniture store sales fell 0.7%, while those at building material and garden equipment retailers decreased 0.4%.
German inflation rate reaching the new high since reunification The annual inflation rate in Germany was at 10.0%yoy or up 1.9%mom in September 2022, reaching the new high level since the 1990’s German reunification, highlighting the impact of the ongoing energy crisis, which staying above 7% for seven months. The goods inflation rose to 17.2%yoy from 14.7%yoy in August, led by rising cost of energy and food. In addition, prices of services increased faster, with rent prices rising 1.8%yoy. The prices of energy products also increased sharply, especially for heating oil, natural gas, electricity, motor fuels. Meanwhile, overall inflation accelerated in this month also because two temporary measures of the second relief package ended, the fuel discount and the 9-euro ticket. The dampening effect of the relief measures on the consumer price index had been estimated at roughly 1 pp when the relief measures took effect in June 2022.
Asian markets mixed as keeping eyes on China meeting The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.24, +4.53 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.12, +3.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 3.00-3.20. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.02, +2.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 38.24 Moving in a range of 38.02-38.10 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 37.80-38.20 today. Asian shares were mixed Monday as investors kept their eyes on the weeklong Communist Party congress in China. The meeting in China, which opened Sunday, is expected to reappoint Xi Jinping as leader for the next five years, reaffirming his grip on power and stronger state control over the economy. Analyst expect no change to the zero-COVID policy. As a result, Japan's benchmark Nikkei 225 slipped 1.2% in afternoon trading to 26,775.79. Australia's S&P/ASX 200 dipped 1.4% to 6,664.40. South Korea's Kospi rebounded to gain 0.3% to 2,219.71. Hong Kong’s Hang Seng lost 0.2% to 16,561.97, while the Shanghai Composite rose 0.5% to 3,086.38. In Mumbai, the Sensex gained 0.5%.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
