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Daily Market Insight: 17 October 2022

17 Oct 2022
  •   USDTHB: moving in the range 38.10-38.30 this morning, supportive level at 38.05 resistance level at 38.35

·         SET Index: 1,560.8 (-0.12), 12 Oct 2022

·         S&P 500 Index: 3,583.1 (-2.39%), 14 Oct 2022

·         Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.20 (-0.20 bps), 12 Oct 2022

·         US 10-year treasury yield: 4.00 (+3.00 bps), 14 Oct 2022

 

  • US CPI rose more than expected again in September; core CPI up 0.6%
  • Euro zone posts record trade deficit in August amid soaring energy prices
  • China CPI rises as expected in Sept, factory inflation at 20-month low
  • Oil rises as OPEC+ members voice support for supply cut

 

US CPI rose more than expected again in September; core CPI up 0.6% US consumer inflation again turned out stronger than expected in September, dashing hopes for a slowdown that might persuade the Federal Reserve to stop raising interest rates. The consumer price index rose 0.4% from August, and was up 8.2% on the year, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While the headline rate was down fractionally from 8.3% in August, it's still far above the Fed's 2% target. Stripping out volatile food and energy components, core prices rose by 0.6% for a second straight month, indicating broad and sustained inflationary pressure across the economy. In annual terms, the core CPI accelerated to a new 40-year high of 6.6% from 6.3% a month earlier.

 

Euro zone posts record trade deficit in August amid soaring energy prices The euro zone posted in August its largest trade deficit since it expanded to 19 countries in 2015, as high energy prices boosted its import bill, official estimates released on Friday showed. The European Union’s statistics office Eurostat said that the euro zone’s balance for trade in goods with the rest of the world in August was in the red by nearly 51 billion euros ($49.7 billion), the highest deficit ever recorded by the bloc since Lithuania joined it in January 2015 to become its 19th member. The deficit ballooned from July when it stood at 34 billion euros, marking the tenth consecutive month of a negative balance, in what is a major shift for the trade bloc which has historically recorded large surpluses.

 

China CPI rises as expected in Sept, factory inflation at 20-month low Chinese inflation rose in September as a raft of liquidity measures by the People’s Bank and increased spending during the mid-Autumn festival helped support retail prices, although factory-gate inflation continued to languish near 20-month lows. The consumer price index rose 2.8% on an annual basis in September, data from the National Bureau of Statistics showed, meeting expectations. The figure was more than August’s reading of 2.5%. On a monthly basis, CPI inflation rose 0.3% from August, compared to a contraction of 0.1% in the prior month. But China’s producer price index, which measures factory-gate prices, rose at an annualized 0.9% in September, compared to expectations for growth of 1%. The reading was well below August's 2.3% and touched its weakest level since February 2021.

 

Oil rises as OPEC+ members voice support for supply cut The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.20, -0.20 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 3.18, -1.5 bps. LB31DA could be between 3.15-3.30. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 4.00, +3.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 38.14 Moving in a range of 38.10-38.30 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 38.20-38.50 today. Oil prices rose on Monday, recovering some of last week’s losses as more OPEC+ members expressed support for a recent production cut of over 2 million barrels per day, despite increased opposition from the United States. Several members of the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies, including Saudi Arabia, the United Arab Emirates, Iraq and Kuwait expressed support for the production cut over the weekend, expressing a joint need to stabilize oil prices amid headwinds from slowing economic growth.

 

Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC