- USDTHB: moving in the range 37.30-37.47 this morning, supportive level at 37.30 resistance level at 37.60
· SET Index: 1,580.3 (+0.14%), 5 Oct 2022
· S&P 500 Index: 3,783.3 (-0.20%), 5 Oct 2022
· Thai 10-year government bond yield (interpolated): 3.09 (-4.57 bps), 5 Oct 2022
· US 10-year treasury yield: 3.76 (+14.00 bps), 5 Oct 2022
- Eurozone business activity lowest since January 2021
- OPEC+ agrees deep oil production cut despite US pressure
- Australia’s Interest rate hikes slow as threat of global recession looms
- South Korea’s inflation slightly lower but tightening bias seen intact
- Asian stocks bounce higher on signs of rate hikes
Eurozone business activity lowest since January 2021 The S&P Global Composite PMI for the Eurozone was revised lower to 48.1 in September of 2022 from a preliminary of 48.2, extending the downturn into a third straight month and pointing to the fastest decline in output since January 2021. Output in both the manufacturing and service sectors fell at a quicker rate as high inflation, soaring energy costs, rising economic uncertainty, and weakening demand drove the euro area economy into a deeper contraction. Total new orders fell to the greatest extent in almost two years, while a considerable drop was seen in export sales. Employment growth continued to slow in September, reflecting a lack of incoming new work and a sustained drop in the level of outstanding business.
OPEC+ agrees deep oil production cut despite US pressure The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and its Russia-led (OPEC+) allies agreed on Wednesday (October 5) to slash output by 2 million barrels per day (or 2% of global supply), which is the biggest cut since April 2020, a move likely to push up already-high global energy prices and help oil-exporting Russia pay for its war in Ukraine. However, the US is pushing OPEC not to proceed with the cuts, arguing that fundamentals don’t support them, a source familiar with the matter said. The White House wants to avoid an increase in petrol prices for US drivers just ahead of congressional elections in November.
Australia’s Interest rate hikes slow as threat of global recession looms The Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) increased the official cash rate by 25 bps at its monthly meeting, taking it to a 9-year high of 2.6%. It was the sixth consecutive increase in the cash rate, which has now been lifted by 2.5 pp since May. The RBA has been lifting rates to dampen inflation, which is expected to reach about 7.75% by year’s end and then a little over 4% through next year. Meanwhile, the RBA has slowed its aggressive interest rate hiking program as it waits to see how households cope with higher mortgage payments while monitoring the looming threat of a global recession.
South Korea’s inflation slightly lower but tightening bias seen intact Consumer prices in South Korea rose 5.6%yoy in September 2022, slightly slowing from last month’s at 5.7%yoy registered in August, as energy and food prices started declining from elevated levels. Food prices fell to 7.8%yoy from 8.0%yoy in August, while service sectors like education and restaurants and hotels gained as wages rose. This could reduce some pressure on the Bank of Korea (BoK), after delivering 25 bps hike to 2.25% in August. BoK Governor Rhee Chang-Yong stated that inflation remained the bank’s priority but warned that it would need to be reviewed if growth weakened sharply.
Asian stocks bounce higher on signs of rate hikes The 10-year government bond yield (interpolated) on the previous trading day was 3.09, -4.57 bps. The benchmark government bond yield (LB31DA) was 2.94, +3.00 bps. LB31DA could be between 2.90-3.00. Meantime, the latest closed US 10-year bond yields was 3.76, +14.00 bps. USDTHB on the previous trading day closed around 37.36 Moving in a range of 37.30-37.47 this morning. USDTHB could be closed between 37.30-37.60 today. Asian stocks rose on October 5 as investors grew hopeful future global interest rate rises might become less aggressive in some major world economies. MSCI's index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan was up 0.5%, while Japan's Nikkei stock index climbed 0.34%. Hong Kong's Hang Seng Index gained 3.76% a day after its public holiday while mainland Chinese markets remain closed for holidays.
Sources : ttb analytics , Bloomberg, CNBC, Trading economics, Investing, CEIC
